IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v126y2023ics0140988323004541.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unveiling the impact of geopolitical conflict on oil prices: A case study of the Russia-Ukraine War and its channels

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Qi
  • Yang, Kun
  • Hu, Yi
  • Jiao, Jianbin
  • Wang, Shouyang

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine War, which has lasted for over a year, has been proven to significantly impact crude oil prices. This article aims to explore the channels through which the Russia-Ukraine War affects crude oil prices and to assist decision-makers in channel intervention to mitigate the impact of the war. To this end, the study proposes a research method called “Compare Real Data with Predicted Data and Match Influencing Factors” (CRP-MIF). The method reveals that the Russia-Ukraine War, through its impact on speculative activities, inventory, and supply-demand balance, combined with production announcements of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led to sharp short-term fluctuations in international oil prices and rapid price increases. Among these channels, speculative activities, inventory, and supply have a substantial impact. Relevant entities can weaken the impact of the war on oil prices and macroeconomic factors by intervening in these transmission channels. This study provides a new reference paradigm for studying the impact channels of major crisis events on commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Qi & Yang, Kun & Hu, Yi & Jiao, Jianbin & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Unveiling the impact of geopolitical conflict on oil prices: A case study of the Russia-Ukraine War and its channels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323004541
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323004541
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106956?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Shaoping & Feng, Hao & Gao, Da, 2023. "Testing for short explosive bubbles: A case of Brent oil futures price," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Zavadska, Miroslava & Morales, Lucía & Coughlan, Joseph, 2020. "Brent crude oil prices volatility during major crises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    5. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    6. Koch, Nicolas, 2014. "Tail events: A new approach to understanding extreme energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 195-205.
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    9. Jacks, David S. & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Qi Zhang & Yi Hu & Jianbin Jiao & Shouyang Wang, 2022. "Exploring the Trend of Commodity Prices: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, August.
    11. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
    12. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
    13. Gong, Xu & Guan, Keqin & Chen, Liqing & Liu, Tangyong & Fu, Chengbo, 2021. "What drives oil prices? — A Markov switching VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Gong, Xu & Chen, Liqiang & Lin, Boqiang, 2020. "Analyzing dynamic impacts of different oil shocks on oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    15. Zhang, Qi & Hu, Yi & Jiao, Jianbin & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Is refined oil price regulation a “shock absorber” for crude oil price shocks?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    16. Amine Loutia & Constantin Mellios & Kostas Andriosopoulos, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Post-Print hal-03968824, HAL.
    17. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    18. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun, 2021. "The Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2018. "Interval decomposition ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 274-287.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Miguel Martins, 2024. "Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 619-630, April.
    2. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    3. U, Tony Sio-Chong & Lin, Yongjia & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on volatility spillovers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Dai, Yun-Shi & Duong, Kiet Tuan & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2024. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the extreme risk spillovers between agricultural futures and spots," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 91-111.
    5. Kim, Sunjin & Park, Daehyeon & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Potential sanctions on the Northeast Asia supergrid: A network theory perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2024. "Is geopolitical oil price uncertainty forcing the world to use energy more efficiently? Evidence from advanced statistical methods," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 908-919.
    7. Chen, Shi & Duan, Xiaoyu & Chiu, Shiu-Chieh & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2024. "Insurer hedging amidst the interplay of black and green swans toward SDGs 3 and 7," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Arfaoui, Nadia & Mohnot, Rajesh, 2024. "Mapping fear in financial markets: Insights from dynamic networks and centrality measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2024. "Revisiting the interdependences across global base metal futures markets: Evidence during the main waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qi Zhang & Yi Hu & Jianbin Jiao & Shouyang Wang, 2024. "The impact of Russia–Ukraine war on crude oil prices: an EMC framework," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    5. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Volatility spillovers across the spot and futures oil markets after news announcements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    6. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Theodosios Perifanis, 2019. "Detecting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Prices’ Bubble Periods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-16, July.
    8. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Zhao, Jing, 2022. "Exploring the influence of the main factors on the crude oil price volatility: An analysis based on GARCH-MIDAS model with Lasso approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Mensi, Walid & Brahim, Mariem & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Time-varying causality and correlations between spot and futures prices of natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Qiang Wang & Xinhua Wang & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and energy transition: the impact of environmental regulation and green innovation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    14. Ding, Shusheng & Wang, Anqi & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Anna Min & Zhou, Xinmiao, 2024. "Commodity market stability and sustainable development: The effect of public health policies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    15. Hu, Guoheng & Liu, Shan & Wu, Guo & Hu, Peng & Li, Ruiqi & Chen, Liujie, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and the heterogeneity of commodity price fluctuations in China ——an empirical study based on TVP-SV-VAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wei, Lijian, 2020. "Macro factors and the realized volatility of commodities: A dynamic network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Li, Ye & Chen, Yiyan & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil price predictability: Novel decomposition ensemble approach based ternary interval number series," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    19. Qin, Yun & Zhang, Zitao, 2024. "Transmission mechanisms of the effects of geopolitical risk on energy returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    20. Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "On the interdependence between biofuel, fossil fuel and agricultural food prices: Evidence from quantile tests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 536-545.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323004541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.