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Trade flows, carbon leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System

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  • Wang, Maria
  • Kuusi, Tero

Abstract

The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) has been shown to have reduced emissions in the participating countries and industries since its adoption in 2005. However, there is less evidence on the shifting of production outside EU to avoid emission controls. We study this so-called carbon leakage with gravity analysis of international trade flows and carbon intensities of trade. We utilize the gravity model on a sectoral level and study its implications empirically. Our findings with new OECD data indicate that some carbon leakage has in fact occurred due to the EU ETS, resulting in higher carbon content of imports to the EU. At the same time, we show that the EU ETS has induced lower carbon content of exports from the EU. In further analysis, we show that the carbon leakage we find has caused a moderate increase in total carbon content embodied in the EU’s trade, despite the decreases in exported carbon.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Maria & Kuusi, Tero, 2024. "Trade flows, carbon leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:134:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324002640
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107556
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon leakage; EU ETS; Emission trading; Trade flows; Gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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