The impact of carbon leakage from energy-saving targets: A moderating effect based on new-energy model cities

In response to the threat of climate change and to accelerate the process of carbon neutrality, China has implemented energy-saving targets that take into account the level of regional economic development. This approach does reduce overall carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions but is accompanied by significant carbon leakage. However, carbon leakage between cities has shown a downward trend since 2015. One possible reason is that the construction of new-energy model cities (NEMC), which began in 2014, has facilitated the promotion and application of renewable energy. Renewable energy, characterized by its wide distribution and “zero carbon” features, ensures a stable energy supply while reducing CO2 emissions. Its promotion and application have effectively mitigated the carbon leakage caused by energy-saving targets. To verify this conjecture, this paper utilizes data from 298 cities during the period of 2005–2021, establishes a fixed-effect model and a moderating effect model, and systematically examines the carbon leakage effect of energy-saving targets and the moderating effect of NEMC. The findings reveal that regions with strict energy-saving targets can increase CO2 emissions in regions with lax energy-saving targets through industrial transfer, while NEMC can attenuate the carbon leakage effect of these targets. Further analysis indicates that the mechanism of carbon leakage between regions is significantly influenced by geographic, economic, and energy linkages. In particular, cities with strict energy-saving targets tend to choose cities with close geographic proximity and strong energy links as their first choice for industrial transfer, leading to carbon leakage in these cities, while NEMC can effectively reduce carbon leakage through the path of industrial transfer. It is worth noting, however, that mere economic links between cities with lax energy-saving targets and cities with strict energy-saving targets do not lead to industrial transfer; only close economic links become important areas for industrial transfer, leading to carbon leakage. This paper addresses the critical issue of inter-city carbon leakage, which is of great significance in promoting the process of carbon neutrality.