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Trade Flows, Carbon Leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System

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  • Kuusi, Tero
  • Wang, Maria

Abstract

The EU’s Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has been shown to have reduced emissions in the participating countries and industries since its adoption in 2005. However, there is less evidence on the shifting of production outside EU to avoid emission controls. We study this so-called carbon leakage with gravity analysis of international trade flows and carbon intensities of trade. We provide a simple theoretical framework and study its implications empirically. Our findings with the new OECD data indicate that carbon leakage has in fact occurred due to the EU ETS, resulting in higher CO2 intensity of imports to the EU, and lower CO2 intensity of exports from the EU. The evidence on the value of imports also shows some increases from nonparticipating countries due to the ETS. We find that our results are broadly consistent with the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuusi, Tero & Wang, Maria, 2022. "Trade Flows, Carbon Leakage, and the EU Emissions Trading System," ETLA Working Papers 94, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:wpaper:94
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon leakage; EU ETS; Gravity model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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