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Estimating the Effects of Trade Agreements: Lessons from 60 Years of Methods and Data

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  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

Starting with Tinbergen (1962), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and also in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen’s very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Trade Agreements: Lessons from 60 Years of Methods and Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10267, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
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    15. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    16. James E Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V Yotov, 2020. "Transitional Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1583-1607.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicente Pinilla & Agustina Rayes, 2024. "Trade Treaties and the Boost of Argentine Exports, 1880-1929," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 2406, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    2. Javier Flórez Mendoza & Bernhard Moshammer, 2023. "FIW-PB 60 The EU–Mercosur agreement: Expectations and concerns in light of the new geopolitical situation," FIW Policy Brief series 60, FIW.
    3. Wassie, Mengistu Alamneh & Kornher, Lukas & Zaki, Chahir, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of Trade Facilitation Measures in Africa: Structural Gravity Estimation and Ad Valorem Tariff Equivalents," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344296, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    4. Díaz-Mora Carmen & Esteve-Pérez Silviano & Gil-Pareja Salvador, 2024. "Exploring the Heterogeneous Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade: Depth Matters," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional trade agreements; gravity equation; estimation; methods; data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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