IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemwp/327158.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS

Author

Listed:
  • D'Arcangelo, Maria Filippo
  • Galeotti, Marzio

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the effect of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on cross-country investments. To avoid carbon leakage, the scheme allocates a number of free allowances to firms at risk of relocating investments in areas outside the EU ETS. To study this problem, we employ a model of the firm’s investment decision in conjunction with novel firm-level data. In contrast with most previous literature, we stress the importance of firms’ heterogeneity in the analysis and leverage it. We derive conditions for the firm’s optimal emissions to construct a measure of investment sensitivity to carbon pricing from observed pollution data. This allows to identify the effect of the EU ETS on international investments by comparing the expected profits from investing in several different countries. We find that investments react to carbon pricing and that the effect is stronger for more polluting investments. However, the aggregate amount of diverted investments is small. We moreover show that the lost investments do not justify, alone, the generous compensations scheme aimed at retaining investments.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Arcangelo, Maria Filippo & Galeotti, Marzio, 2022. "Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS," FEEM Working Papers 327158, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemwp:327158
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.327158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/327158/files/NDL2022-027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.327158?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eva Lyubich & Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," Working Papers 18-03, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and the Environment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 7-71, March.
    3. Simone Borghesi & Chiara Franco & Giovanni Marin, 2020. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment Patterns of Italian Firms in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 219-256, January.
    4. Florens Flues & Kurt van Dender, 2017. "Permit allocation rules and investment incentives in emissions trading systems," OECD Taxation Working Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
    5. Naegele, Helene & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2019. "Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93, pages 125-147.
    6. Petrick, Sebastian & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "The impact of carbon trading on industry: Evidence from German manufacturing firms," Kiel Working Papers 1912, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2002. "Series Estimation of Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 103-116, May.
    8. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer, 2015. "The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 565-595.
    9. Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & de Preux, Laure B. & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 78-88.
    10. John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet & Per G. Fredriksson & W. Warren McHone, 2003. "Effects of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 944-952, November.
    11. A. Denny Ellerman & Claudio Marcantonini & Aleksandar Zaklan, 2016. "The European Union Emissions Trading System: Ten Years and Counting," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 89-107.
    12. McGrattan, Ellen R. & Prescott, Edward C., 2009. "Openness, technology capital, and development," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2454-2476, November.
    13. Eva Lyubich & Joseph Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 136-142, May.
    14. James B. Bushnell & Howard Chong & Erin T. Mansur, 2013. "Profiting from Regulation: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 78-106, November.
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "The Social Cost of Carbon," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 419-443, October.
    16. List, John A. & McHone, W. Warren & Millimet, Daniel L., 2004. "Effects of environmental regulation on foreign and domestic plant births: is there a home field advantage?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 303-326, September.
    17. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Misato Sato, 2017. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Competitiveness," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 183-206.
    18. Jared C. Carbone & Nicholas Rivers, 2017. "The Impacts of Unilateral Climate Policy on Competitiveness: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Models," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 24-42.
    19. Ariel T. Burstein & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2009. "Foreign Know-How, Firm Control, and the Income of Developing Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 149-195.
    20. Raphael Calel & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2016. "Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European Carbon Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 173-191, March.
    21. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Di Maria, Corrado, 2012. "Efficiency, productivity and environmental policy: A case study of power generation in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1557-1568.
    22. Ralf Martin & Mirabelle Mu?ls & Laure B. de Preux & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2014. "Industry Compensation under Relocation Risk: A Firm-Level Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2482-2508, August.
    23. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    24. Ulrich Doraszelski & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2018. "Measuring the Bias of Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1027-1084.
    25. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Giulia Pavan & Sara Calligaris, 2022. "The Impact of the European Carbon Market on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 2022.24, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    26. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    27. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    28. Adam B. Jaffe et al., 1995. "Environmental Regulation and the Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing: What Does the Evidence Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 132-163, March.
    29. Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013. "Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 273-322.
    30. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    31. Tim Jeppesen & John A. List & Henk Folmer, 2002. "Environmental Regulations and New Plant Location Decisions: Evidence from a Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 19-49, February.
    32. List, John A. & Co, Catherine Y., 2000. "The Effects of Environmental Regulations on Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20, July.
    33. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    34. José de Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2011. "Does the Single Currency Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 553-578, September.
    35. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2015. "Kyoto and Carbon Leakage: An Empirical Analysis of the Carbon Content of Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 104-115, March.
    36. Stefano F. Verde, 2020. "The Impact Of The Eu Emissions Trading System On Competitiveness And Carbon Leakage: The Econometric Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 320-343, April.
    37. Ulrich Wagner & Christopher Timmins, 2009. "Agglomeration Effects in Foreign Direct Investment and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(2), pages 231-256, June.
    38. Wolfgang Keller & Arik Levinson, 2002. "Pollution Abatement Costs and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 691-703, November.
    39. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    40. Nicola Commins & Seán Lyons & Marc Schiffbauer & Richard S.J. Tol, 2011. "Climate Policy & Corporate Behavior," The Energy Journal, , vol. 32(4), pages 51-68, October.
    41. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    42. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    43. Meredith Fowlie & Mar Reguant, 2018. "Challenges in the Measurement of Leakage Risk," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 124-129, May.
    44. Cludius, Johanna & de Bruyn, Sander & Schumacher, Katja & Vergeer, Robert, 2020. "Ex-post investigation of cost pass-through in the EU ETS - an analysis for six industry sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    45. Daniel McFadden, 1975. "The Revealed Preferences of a Government Bureaucracy: Theory," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(2), pages 401-416, Autumn.
    46. D’Arcangelo, Filippo Maria & Pavan, Giulia & Calligaris, Sara, 2022. "The Impact of the European Carbon Market on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," FEEM Working Papers 324170, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    47. Eva Lyubich & Joseph Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications of Firm Heterogeneity for Environmental Policy," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 136-142, May.
    48. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    49. Yuquing Xing & Charles Kolstad, 2002. "Do Lax Environmental Regulations Attract Foreign Investment?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
    50. Veith, Stefan & Werner, Jörg R. & Zimmermann, Jochen, 2009. "Capital market response to emission rights returns: Evidence from the European power sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 605-613, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carla Guerriero & Antonia Pacelli, 2023. "Emissions Abatement: the Role of EU ETS and Free Allowances. The Italian Case," CSEF Working Papers 698, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Filippo Maria D'Arcangelo & Marzio Galeotti, 2022. "Environmental Policy and Investment Location: The Risk of Carbon Leakage in the EU ETS," Working Papers 2022.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Koch, Nicolas & Basse Mama, Houdou, 2019. "Does the EU Emissions Trading System induce investment leakage? Evidence from German multinational firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 479-492.
    3. Campolmi, Alessia & Fadinger, Harald & Forlati, Chiara & Stillger, Sabine & Wagner, Ulrich, 2023. "Designing Effective Carbon Border Adjustment with Minimal Information Requirements. Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 18645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Arjan Trinks & Erik Hille, 2023. "Carbon costs and industrial firm performance: Evidence from international microdata," CPB Discussion Paper 445, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Misato Sato, 2017. "The Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Competitiveness," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 183-206.
    7. repec:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_495 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Joltreau, Eugénie & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2016. "Why does emissions trading under the EU ETS not affect firms' competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Naegele, Helene & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2019. "Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93, pages 125-147.
    10. Saussay, Aurélien & Sato, Misato, 2024. "The impact of energy prices on industrial investment location: Evidence from global firm level data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Saussay, Aurelien & Sato, Misato, 2024. "The impact of energy prices on industrial investment location: evidence from global firm level data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123034, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Hafele, Jakob & Kuhls, Sonia, 2022. "Trade-off or tension: Can carbon be priced without risking economic competitiveness?," ZOE Discussion Papers 9, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    13. Themann, Michael & Koch, Nicolas, 2021. "Catching up and falling behind: Cross-country evidence on the impact of the EU ETS on firm productivity," Ruhr Economic Papers 904, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Saussay, Aurélien & Zugravu-Soilita, Natalia, 2023. "International production chains and the pollution offshoring hypothesis: An empirical investigation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Kerui Du & Qilin Huang & Presley K. Wesseh, 2025. "Domestic Pollution Havens: Linking Interregional Capital Flight and Water Pollution Regulation in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(1), pages 125-161, January.
    16. Damien Dussaux & Francesco Vona & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2023. "Imported carbon emissions: Evidence from French manufacturing companies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(2), pages 593-621, May.
    17. aus dem Moore, Nils & Großkurth, Philipp & Themann, Michael, 2017. "Multinational corporations and the EU emissions trading system: Asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization?," Ruhr Economic Papers 719, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Sadayuki, Taisuke & Arimura, Toshi H., 2021. "Do regional emission trading schemes lead to carbon leakage within firms? Evidence from Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    19. aus dem Moore, Nils & Großkurth, Philipp & Themann, Michael, 2019. "Multinational corporations and the EU Emissions Trading System: The specter of asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-26.
    20. Pan, Xian & Yu, Lihong, 2024. "Do China's pilot emissions trading schemes lead to domestic carbon leakage? Perspective from the firm relocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemwp:327158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.