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Navigating the tides of uncertainty: exploring the complex relationship between global economic policy and crude oil transportation

Author

Listed:
  • Xinzhou Qi

    (Fudan University
    The University of British Columbia)

  • Wenjing Zhang

    (Shanghai Maritime University)

  • Ling Sun

    (Fudan University
    Shanghai Maritime University)

  • Zijiang Hu

    (Fudan University
    Jiangsu University of Technology)

  • Zhong Ning

    (Fudan University)

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU). In this study, we analyze the impact of changing environmental factors, geopolitical risks, global health events, economic policies, and institutions on the relationship between BDTI and GEPU from 2000 to 2022. The results reveal that this relationship cannot be explained by straightforward causality but rather by dynamic causality influenced by the evolving economic and political environment. Furthermore, we observe a resonance effect between GEPU and BDTI under different crude oil supply, demand, and tanker capacity scenarios. Our findings offer practical implications to investors, crude oil transportation companies, and government departments, emphasizing the importance of monitoring global conditions, considering environmental policies, and adapting to changing economic systems in the oil transportation market.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinzhou Qi & Wenjing Zhang & Ling Sun & Zijiang Hu & Zhong Ning, 2024. "Navigating the tides of uncertainty: exploring the complex relationship between global economic policy and crude oil transportation," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(4), pages 612-629, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:26:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1057_s41278-023-00274-w
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-023-00274-w
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