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Drivers of economic and financial integration: A machine learning approach

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  • Akbari, Amir
  • Ng, Lilian
  • Solnik, Bruno

Abstract

We propose a new approach to identifying drivers of economic and financial integration, separately, and across emerging and developed countries. Our advanced machine learning technique allows for nonlinear relationships, corrects for over-fitting, and is less prone to noise. It also can tackle a large number of highly correlated explanatory variables and controls for multicollinearity. Results suggest that general economic growth, increasing international trade, and contained population growth have helped emerging countries catch up to the level of the economic integration of developed countries. However, slow financial development and a high level of investment riskiness have hindered the speed of emerging countries’ financial integration. Furthermore, the results suggest that integration is a gradual process and is not driven by cyclical or transitory events.

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  • Akbari, Amir & Ng, Lilian & Solnik, Bruno, 2021. "Drivers of economic and financial integration: A machine learning approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 82-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:61:y:2021:i:c:p:82-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2020.12.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Isaac K. Ofori & Camara K. Obeng & Simplice A. Asongu, 2024. "What Really Drives Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from the Lasso Regularization and Inferential Techniques," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 144-179, March.
    2. Donadelli, M. & Gufler, I. & Paradiso, A., 2024. "Financial market integration: A complex and controversial journey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Audi, Marc & Ehsan, Rehan & Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Does Globalization Promote Financial Integration in South Asian Economies? Unveiling the Role of Monetary and Fiscal Performance in Internationalization," MPRA Paper 119365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2023.
    4. Kendo, Sandra & Tchakounte, Josephine, 2022. "The drivers of the financial integration of microfinance Institutions: Do financial development, agency costs and microfinance performance matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 128-142.
    5. Patel, Ritesh & Goodell, John W. & Oriani, Marco Ercole & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "A bibliometric review of financial market integration literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Fan, Shuangshuang & Wei, Yuetong & Niu, Xiao & Balezentis, Tomas & Agnusdei, Leonardo, 2023. "Can FinTech development pave the way for a transition towards inclusive growth: Evidence from an emerging economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 439-458.
    7. Alessandro Bitetto & Stefano Filomeni & Michele Modina, 2021. "Understanding corporate default using Random Forest: The role of accounting and market information," DEM Working Papers Series 205, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Sandra Kendo & Josephine Tchakounte, 2022. "The drivers of the financial integration of microfinance Institutions: Do financial development, agency costs and microfinance performance matter?," Post-Print hal-04529938, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinants of market integration; Random Forest Regression; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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