IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2410.21019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Integration of Africa in the 21st Century: Complex Network and Panel Regression Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tekilu Tadesse Choramo
  • Jemal Abafita
  • Yerali Gandica
  • Luis E C Rocha

Abstract

Global and regional integration has grown significantly in recent decades, boosting intra-African trade and positively impacting national economies through trade diversification and sustainable development. However, existing measures of economic integration often fail to capture the complex interactions among trading partners. This study addresses this gap by using complex network analysis and dynamic panel regression techniques to identify factors driving economic integration in Africa, based on data from 2002 to 2019. The results show that economic development, institutional quality, regional trade agreements, human capital, FDI, and infrastructure positively influence a country's position in the African trade network. Conversely, trade costs, the global financial crisis, and regional overlapping memberships negatively affect network based integration. Our findings suggest that enhancing a country's connectivity in the African trade network involves identifying key economic and institutional factors of trade partners and strategically focusing on continent-wide agreements rather than just regional ones to boost economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tekilu Tadesse Choramo & Jemal Abafita & Yerali Gandica & Luis E C Rocha, 2024. "Economic Integration of Africa in the 21st Century: Complex Network and Panel Regression Analysis," Papers 2410.21019, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.21019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.21019
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2010. "The evolution of the world trade web: a weighted-network analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 479-514, August.
    2. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2013. "International Trade and Institutional Change," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(5), pages 1145-1181, October.
    3. Jiang, Ronghao & Tamang, Tenzin, 2020. "The Evolutionary Dimensions of Global Investment Networks," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(4), pages 576-608.
    4. Ayadi, Rym & Giovannetti, Giorgia & Marvasi, Enrico & Zaki, Chahir, 2024. "Trade networks and the productivity of MENA firms in global value chains," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 10-23.
    5. Zhaohui Niu & Chang Liu & Saileshsingh Gunessee & Chris Milner, 2018. "Non-tariff and overall protection: evidence across countries and over time," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(4), pages 675-703, November.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    7. Fracasso, Andrea & Nguyen, Hien T. T. & Schiavo, Stefano, 2018. "The evolution of oil trade: A complex network approach," Network Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 545-570, December.
    8. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," Papers physics/0701030, arXiv.org.
    9. Qingru Sun & Meiyi Hou & Shuaiwei Shi & Liwei Cui & Zenglei Xi, 2022. "The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2010. "Using complex networks analysis to assess the evolution of international economic integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 215-239.
    11. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    12. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 312-322.
    13. Tsuyoshi Deguchi & Katsuhide Takahashi & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2014. "Hubs and Authorities in the World Trade Network Using a Weighted HITS Algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, July.
    14. Henri L. F. De Groot & Gert‐Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2004. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 103-123, February.
    15. repec:cup:netsci:v:6:y:2018:i:04:p:494-516_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Peter R. Herman, 2022. "Modeling complex network patterns in international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 127-179, February.
    17. Martin, Christoph & Niemeyer, Peter, 2019. "Influence of measurement errors on networks: Estimating the robustness of centrality measures," Network Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 180-195, June.
    18. Samuel Admassu, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the trade-creation effect of African regional economic communities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 843-863, March.
    19. Munyegera, Ggombe Kasim & Matsumoto, Tomoya, 2016. "Mobile Money, Remittances, and Household Welfare: Panel Evidence from Rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 127-137.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2021. "Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa?," IMF Working Papers 2021/019, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    22. Abban, Stanley, 2020. "Institutions, Infrastructure and East African Community Membership of Burundi and Rwanda on Trade," MPRA Paper 100654, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2020.
    23. Mohammad Tariful Bari & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2021. "Networks, human capital and export success: evidence from Bangladesh," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1539-1566, September.
    24. Giudici, Paolo & Huang, Bihong & Spelta, Alessandro, 2018. "Trade Networks and Economic Fluctuations in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 832, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    25. Rekiso, Zinabu Samaro, 2017. "Rethinking regional economic integration in Africa as if industrialization mattered," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 87-98, December.
    26. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Ying & Yang, Cai & Guo, Yaoqi, 2021. "The impact of country risk on energy trade patterns based on complex network and panel regression analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    27. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    28. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    29. Natalya Smith & Ekaterina Thomas, 2017. "Regional conditions and innovation in Russia: the impact of foreign direct investment and absorptive capacity," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(9), pages 1412-1428, September.
    30. Isabella Cingolani & Lelio Iapadre & Lucia Tajoli, 2018. "International production networks and the world trade structure," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 153, pages 11-33.
    31. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2011. "The World Trade Network," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1417-1454, August.
    32. Yerali Gandica & Marco Valerio Geraci & Sophie Béreau & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2018. "Fragmentation, integration and macroprudential surveillance of the US financial industry: Insights from network science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    33. Muhammad Sofjan, 2017. "The Effect of Liberalization on Export-import in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 672-676.
    34. C. T. Vidya & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Does infrastructure facilitate trade connectivity? Evidence from the ASEAN," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 51-75, December.
    35. Peter R. Herman, 2022. "Correction to: Modeling complex network patterns in international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 713-714, May.
    36. Pédussel Wu, Jennifer, 2004. "Measuring and explaining levels of regional economic integration," ZEI Working Papers B 12-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    37. D. Garlaschelli & T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & G. Caldarelli & M. I. Loffredo, 2007. "Interplay between topology and dynamics in the World Trade Web," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 159-164, May.
    38. Gieyoung Lim & Chong-Uk Kim, 2011. "The Role of Human Capital in Networks Effects: Evidence from US Exports," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 299-313, September.
    39. De Benedictis Luca & Nenci Silvia & Santoni Gianluca & Tajoli Lucia & Vicarelli Claudio, 2014. "Network Analysis of World Trade using the BACI-CEPII Dataset," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3-4), pages 287-343, October.
    40. Valentina Meliciani & Daniela Cagno & Andrea Fabrizi & Marco Marini, 2022. "Knowledge networks in joint research projects, innovation and economic growth across European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 549-586, June.
    41. Coulibaly, Salifou K. & Erbao, Cao & Metuge Mekongcho, T., 2018. "Economic globalization, entrepreneurship, and development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 271-280.
    42. Amat Adarov, 2021. "Interactions Between Global Value Chains and Foreign Direct Investment: A Network Approach," wiiw Working Papers 204, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    43. Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Aliona Cebotari & Xiaodan Ding & Andras Komaromi, 2017. "Trade Integration in Latin America: A Network Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2017/148, International Monetary Fund.
    44. Raja Kali & Javier Reyes, 2007. "The architecture of globalization: a network approach to international economic integration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(4), pages 595-620, July.
    45. Akbari, Amir & Ng, Lilian & Solnik, Bruno, 2021. "Drivers of economic and financial integration: A machine learning approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 82-102.
    46. Iapadre, P. Lelio & Tajoli, Lucia, 2014. "Emerging countries and trade regionalization. A network analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 89-110.
    47. Daniel Nepelski & Giuditta De Prato, 2018. "The structure and evolution of ICT global innovation network," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 940-965, November.
    48. Mon, Yi Yi & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2020. "Regional trade agreements and income inequality: Are there any differences between bilateral and plurilateral agreements?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 136-153.
    49. Zhaohui Chong & Chenglin Qin & Su Pan, 2019. "The Evolution of the Belt and Road Trade Network and Its Determinant Factors," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(14), pages 3166-3177, November.
    50. Giorgio Fagiolo & Javier Reyes & Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "The Evolution of the World Trade Web," LEM Papers Series 2007/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    51. Roberto Basile & Pasquale Commendatore & Luca De Benedictis & Ingrid Kubin, 2018. "The impact of trade costs on the European Regional Trade Network: An empirical and theoretical analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 578-609, August.
    52. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    53. Bhattacharya, Mita & Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Valenzuela, Maria Rebecca, 2018. "Financial integration in Africa: New evidence using network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 379-390.
    54. Liu Haiyun & Yassin Elshain Yahia & Md Ismail Hossain & Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain Shah, 2023. "The effect of integration processes of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa on the economic growth of the member states," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 93-111, January.
    55. Luca De Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2010. "Comparing sectoral international trade networks," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 65(2), pages 167-189, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blázquez, Leticia & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & González-Díaz, Belén, 2023. "Hubs of embodied business services in a GVC world," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 28-43.
    2. L. Blázquez & C. Díaz-Mora & B. González-Díaz, 2023. "Slowbalisation or a “New” type of GVC participation? The role of digital services," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(1), pages 121-147, March.
    3. Paolo Bartesaghi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2020. "Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances," Papers 2001.06356, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    4. João Amador & Sónia Cabral & Rossana Mastrandrea & Franco Ruzzenenti, 2018. "Who’s Who in Global Value Chains? A Weighted Network Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1039-1059, November.
    5. Yan, Jingjing & Guo, Yaoqi & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "The dynamic evolution mechanism of structural dependence characteristics in the global oil trade network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    6. Assaf Almog & Rhys Bird & Diego Garlaschelli, 2015. "Enhanced Gravity Model of trade: reconciling macroeconomic and network models," Papers 1506.00348, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2019.
    7. Fredy Cepeda-Lopez & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Carlos Leon-Rincón & Hernán Rincon-Castro, 2022. "Colombian Liberalization and Integration into World Trade Markets: Much Ado about Nothing," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 25(2), pages 1-44, December.
    8. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    9. Schneider, Sophie Therese, 2018. "North-South trade agreements and the quality of institutions: Panel data evidence," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 27-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    10. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2017. "Networks of Value-added Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1291-1313, July.
    11. Rosanna Grassi & Paolo Bartesaghi & Stefano Benati & Gian Paolo Clemente, 2021. "Multi-Attribute Community Detection in International Trade Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 707-733, September.
    12. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2014. "Global Trade Imbalances: A Network Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03n04), pages 1-29.
    13. Deepika Srivastava & M. Rahul, 2024. "Network analysis of trade and FDI," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, January.
    14. Getachew Magnar Kitila & Fuzhong Chen, 2021. "Multilateral Trade Resistance, International Competitiveness and African International Exports: A Network Perspective," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(10), pages 111-126.
    15. Vittorio Carlei & Francesca Affortunato & Alessandro Marra & Marco Brogi, 2019. "Does centrality of importing countries affect export prices in the global trade?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 529-551, January.
    16. Qiaowen Zhang & Benjamin Batinge, 2021. "A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 204-217, March.
    17. Julian Maluck & Reik V Donner, 2015. "A Network of Networks Perspective on Global Trade," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-24, July.
    18. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2021. "Economic integration and economic complexity: The role of basic resources in absorptive capability in 40 selected developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 609-625.
    19. Paolo Bartesaghi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2022. "Community structure in the World Trade Network based on communicability distances," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 405-441, April.
    20. Luca Salvatici & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "New features, forgotten costs and counterfactual gains of the international trading system," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 592-633.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.21019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.