IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v48y2016i6p536-552.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trends in stock-bond correlations

Author

Listed:
  • Harumi Ohmi
  • Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Abstract

Previous studies document the existence of long-run trends in comovements in the stock and bond markets. Following these findings, this article examines possible trends in stock-bond return correlations. To this end, we introduce a trend component into a smooth transition regression (STR) model including the multiple transition variables of Aslanidis and Christiansen (2012). The results indicate the existence of significant decreasing trends in stock-bond correlations for many advanced safer countries. In addition, although stock market volatility continues to be an important factor in stock-bond correlations, the short rate and yield spread become only marginally significant once we introduce the trend component. Our out-of-sample analysis also demonstrates that the STR model, including the volatility index and time trend as the transition variables, dominates other models. Furthermore, we find a significant increase in stock-bond correlations for riskier euro countries around the beginning of the euro crisis. Our findings of decreasing and increasing trends in stock-bond correlations can be considered a consequence of the decreasing effects of diversification and more intensive flight-to-quality behaviour that have taken place in recent years and after the euro crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Harumi Ohmi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2016. "Trends in stock-bond correlations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 536-552, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:6:p:536-552
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1083088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2015.1083088
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2015.1083088?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    2. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2014. "Quantiles of the realized stock–bond correlation and links to the macroeconomy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 321-331.
    3. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    4. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Modeling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 373-411, Fall.
    5. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Evolution of International Stock and Bond Market Integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 12, pages 391-428, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    7. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    8. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    9. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2014. "Asymmetric increasing trends in dependence in international equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 219-232.
    10. Naresh Bansal & Robert A. Connolly & Chris Stivers, 2010. "Regime‐switching in stock index and Treasury futures returns and measures of stock market stress," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 753-779, August.
    11. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    12. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    13. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    14. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    15. Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2007. "Commonality in the time-variation of stock-stock and stock-bond return comovements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 192-218, May.
    16. Dirk G. Baur, 2010. "Stock-bond co-movements and cross-country linkages," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 111-129.
    17. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3711-3751 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Kumar, Manmohan S. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Dynamics of international integration of government securities' markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 142-154, January.
    19. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    20. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    21. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
    22. Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
    23. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    24. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    25. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    26. Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang & Wang, Zijun, 2009. "The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 670-680, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Allard, Anne-Florence & Iania, Leonardo & Smedts, Kristien, 2020. "Stock-bond return correlations: Moving away from “one-frequency-fits-all” by extending the DCC-MIDAS approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2017. "No-arbitrage Determinants of Japanese Government Bond Yield and Credit Spread Curves," Discussion papers 17104, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Hammoudeh, Shawkat M., 2017. "Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-280.
    6. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2020. "No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    8. Misheck Mutize & Sean J. Gossel, 2019. "Sovereign Credit Rating Announcement Effects on Foreign Currency Denominated Bond and Equity Markets in Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 135-152, January.
    9. Mª Caridad Sevillano & Francisco Jareño, 2018. "The impact of international factors on Spanish company returns: a quantile regression approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 51-76, February.
    10. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Cross-asset relations, correlations and economic implications," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 60-78.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allard, Anne-Florence & Iania, Leonardo & Smedts, Kristien, 2020. "Stock-bond return correlations: Moving away from “one-frequency-fits-all” by extending the DCC-MIDAS approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Skintzi, Vasiliki D., 2019. "Determinants of stock-bond market comovement in the Eurozone under model uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 20-28.
    3. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "News implied volatility and the stock-bond nexus: Evidence from historical data for the USA and the UK markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 47, pages 76-90.
    5. Refk Selmi & Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "A Copula-Based Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Approach to Modeling Dependence Structure between Stock and Bond Returns: Evidence from Historical Data of India, South Africa, UK and US," Working Papers 201747, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Lee Kim, Yea & Wang, Jinghua, 2019. "Who poisons the pool? Time-varying asymmetric and nonlinear causal inference between low-risk and high-risk bonds markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-147.
    8. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    9. Hossein Asgharian & Charlotte Christiansen & Ai Jun Hou, 2016. "Macro-Finance Determinants of the Long-Run Stock–Bond Correlation: The DCC-MIDAS Specification," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 617-642.
    10. Nguyen, Hoang & Javed, Farrukh, 2023. "Dynamic relationship between Stock and Bond returns: A GAS MIDAS copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 272-292.
    11. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    12. Eraslan, Sercan & Ali, Faek Menla, 2017. "Financial crises and the dynamic linkages between stock and bond returns," Discussion Papers 17/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Dimic, Nebojsa & Kiviaho, Jarno & Piljak, Vanja & Äijö, Janne, 2016. "Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-51.
    14. Thomas Chiang & Jiandong Li & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2015. "Dynamic stock–bond return correlations and financial market uncertainty," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-88, July.
    15. Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Hammoudeh, Shawkat M., 2017. "Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-280.
    16. McMillan, David G., 2019. "Cross-asset relations, correlations and economic implications," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 60-78.
    17. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.
    18. Komatsubara, Tadaaki & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tatsumi, Ken-ichi, 2017. "Dynamics of integration in East Asian equity markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 37-50.
    19. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:6:p:536-552. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.