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Does time-varying risk aversion sentiment matter in the connectedness among Sub-Saharan African bond markets?

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  • Umar, Zaghum
  • Bossman, Ahmed
  • Teplova, Tamara
  • Marfo-Yiadom, Edward

Abstract

Several bond markets in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are defaulting due to hiking spreads amid the stressed states introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical risk tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Are there controllable factors that drive these markets? We investigate the dynamic connection shared by SSA bond markets and assess the role of investor sentiment measures, focusing on the risk aversion sentiment of international investors. Our results, across different trading horizons, are expected to aid in the formulation of policies for regulating and developing bond markets of emerging economies, particularly SSA. In terms of both return and volatility of SSA bonds, we find risk aversion sentiment an important transmitter of spillover for all investment horizons.

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  • Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Does time-varying risk aversion sentiment matter in the connectedness among Sub-Saharan African bond markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:61:y:2024:i:c:s1566014124000554
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101160
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk aversion; Investor sentiment; Bond markets; Bond yield; Sub-Saharan Africa; TVP-VAR connectedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N27 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Africa; Oceania

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