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Network connectedness dynamics of the yield curve of G7 countries

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  • Umar, Zaghum
  • Riaz, Yasir
  • Aharon, David Y.

Abstract

Our study examines the connectedness between the sovereign bond yield curve components (Slope, Curvature and Level) of the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Using the framework of Nelson and Siegel we are able to track their connectedness over the long, medium and short-term horizons. The results of the static analysis show an increased connectedness in the long-term as compared to medium and short-term factors, whereas the results of dynamic analysis demonstrate three distinct phases of connectedness over time. Specifically, these phases are characterized by stable, decreasing and then increasing level of connectedness of the G7 system before, during and after the 2008 crisis, respectively. We also find France as well as Germany function as the net transmitters of shocks whereas UK and Japan function as the net receivers of the shocks for all the components of their yield curves. The findings may shed light on the dynamics and interaction of yield curve shocks between these major economies and may be essential for financial market participants such as investors, fund managers, and policy makers, which debt consists a part of their assets allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Aharon, David Y., 2022. "Network connectedness dynamics of the yield curve of G7 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 275-288.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:79:y:2022:i:c:p:275-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.052
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    Cited by:

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    6. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Qin, Weiping & Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart, 2023. "Time-varying bond market integration and the impact of financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Lin, Mucai & Hong, Zhiwu & Su, Ge, 2024. "Transmission of liquidity and credit risks in the Chinese bond market: Analysis based on joint modeling of multiple yield curves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 597-615.
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Does time-varying risk aversion sentiment matter in the connectedness among Sub-Saharan African bond markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Shahab, Yasir & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Network connectedness of the term structure of yield curve and global Sukuks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    14. Wang, Yi & Ali, Shoaib & Ayaz, Muhammad, 2024. "Equity markets and ESG dynamics: Assessing spillovers and portfolio strategies through time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; Connectedness analysis; Variance decomposition; G7; Global financial crisis; Spillover; Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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