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The relationship between global risk aversion and returns from safe-haven assets

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  • Umar, Zaghum
  • Bossman, Ahmed
  • Choi, Sun-Yong
  • Teplova, Tamara

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between global risk aversion and safe-haven assets using the causality-in-quantiles test and the quantile-on-quantile regression method. Our empirical results show the predictability of global risk aversion on the returns of safe-haven assets. Furthermore, we find that several assets have consistent safe haven attributes regardless of the level of global risk aversion, while gold and Bitcoin cannot be considered consistent safe havens. Based on these findings, non-cash flow-induced shocks are not only an important predictor of asset returns but also their relevance cuts across general financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "The relationship between global risk aversion and returns from safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:51:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322006213
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103444
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    2. Mohammed, Kamel Si & Serret, Vanessa & Urom, Christian, 2024. "The effect of green bonds on climate risk amid economic and environmental policy uncertainties," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    3. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Role of hedging on crypto returns predictability: A new habit-based explanation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    4. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong & Wen, Danyan, 2023. "The predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Huang, Shoujun & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Bossman, Ahmed, 2024. "African forex markets: Modeling their predictability and the asymmetric effects of oil and geopolitical risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "EU sectoral stocks amid geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and crude oil implied volatility: An asymmetric analysis of the Russia-Ukraine tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of market uncertainties on agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    8. Yang, Junhua & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Energy, metals, market uncertainties, and ESG stocks: Analysing predictability and safe havens," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Does time-varying risk aversion sentiment matter in the connectedness among Sub-Saharan African bond markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Ming, Lei & Yang, Ping & Tian, Xinyi & Yang, Shenggang & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Safe haven for crude oil: Gold or currencies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global risk aversion; Safe-haven; Causality-in-quantiles; Quantile-on-quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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