IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v21y2014icp133-155.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Kodongo, Odongo
  • Ojah, Kalu

Abstract

In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa's volatile currencies drive equity risk premia. We use the SDF framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premia in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. Interestingly, we find evidence that international investors are concerned about Africa's small size equity markets and build the impact of anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.

Suggested Citation

  • Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 133-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:21:y:2014:i:c:p:133-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2014.08.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014114000570
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2014.08.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poghosyan Tigran, 2012. "Determinants of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Antell, Jan & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2012. "Pricing currency risk in the stock market: Evidence from Finland and Sweden 1970–2009," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 120-136.
    4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    5. Doukas, John & Hall, Patricia H. & Lang, Larry H. P., 1999. "The pricing of currency risk in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June.
    7. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "A Reexamination of Exchange-Rate Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 396-399, May.
    8. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    9. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Murli Rajan, 1997. "A Joint Test of Market Segmentation and Exchange Risk Factor in International Capital Market," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, March.
    10. Di Iorio, Amalia & Faff, Robert, 2002. "The pricing of foreign exchange risk in the Australian equities market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 77-95, January.
    11. Umar Bida Ndako, 2013. "Dynamics of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates Relationship: Evidence From Five Sub-Saharan African Financial Markets," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 47-57, April.
    12. Shanken, Jay & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Estimating and testing beta pricing models: Alternative methods and their performance in simulations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 40-86, April.
    13. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis & Xu Zhang, 2011. "Why a diversified portfolio should include African assets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1333-1340.
    14. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    15. Aysun, Uluc & Guldi, Melanie, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 321-337.
    16. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 444-461, October.
    17. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    18. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
    19. Sirr, Gordon & Garvey, John & Gallagher, Liam, 2011. "Emerging markets and portfolio foreign exchange risk: An empirical investigation using a value-at-risk decomposition technique," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1749-1772.
    20. Lorenzo Cappiello & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2008. "Estimates of foreign exchange risk premia: a pricing kernel approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 475-495, November.
    21. Wolfgang Drobetz & Susanne Stürmer & Heinz Zimmermann, 2002. "Conditional Asset Pricing in Emerging Stock Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(IV), pages 507-526, December.
    22. Iqbal, Javed & Brooks, Robert & Galagedera, Don U.A., 2010. "Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 897-918, September.
    23. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    24. Sun, Changyou & Kim, Mina & Koo, Won W. & Cho, Guedae & Jin, Hyun Joung, 2002. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Wheat Trade Worldwide," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19766, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    25. Buckberg, Elaine, 1995. "Emerging Stock Markets and International Asset Pricing," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 51-74, January.
    26. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    27. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2004. "Currency risk in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-339, September.
    28. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 2002/155, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
    30. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    31. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    32. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    33. Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "The world ex ante risk premium: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 967-999, December.
    34. Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2006. "Specification tests of international asset pricing models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 275-307, March.
    35. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    36. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    37. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 363-376, September.
    38. Andreas Schrimpf & Michael Schröder & Richard Stehle, 2007. "Cross‐sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 880-907, November.
    39. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    40. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "Is the ex ante risk premium always positive? *1: A new approach to testing conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 387-408, December.
    41. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    42. Heber Farnsworth, 2002. "Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 473-504, July.
    43. Kolari, James W. & Moorman, Ted C. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2008. "Foreign exchange risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1074-1097, November.
    44. Heber Farnsworth & Wayne E. Ferson & David Jackson & Steven Todd, 2002. "Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 8791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Loudon, Geoffrey F., 1993. "Foreign exchange exposure and the pricing of currency risk in equity returns: Some Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 335-354, December.
    46. Francesca Carrieri & Basma Majerbi, 2006. "The pricing of exchange risk in emerging stock markets," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(3), pages 372-391, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kola, Katlego & Kodongo, Odongo, 2017. "Macroeconomic risks and REITs returns: A comparative analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1228-1243.
    2. Mosoeu, Selebogo & Kodongo, Odongo, 2022. "The Fama-French five-factor model and emerging market equity returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 55-76.
    3. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor, 2015. "What determines the yen swap spread?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Othieno, Ferdinand & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2019. "Estimating the conditional equity risk premium in African frontier markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 538-551.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
    3. Azher, Sara & Iqbal, Javed, 2016. "Pricing of foreign exchange risk and market segmentation: Evidence from Pakistan's equity market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 37-48.
    4. Huang, Lin & Wu, Jia & Zhang, Rui, 2014. "Exchange risk and asset returns: A theoretical and empirical study of an open economy asset pricing model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 96-116.
    5. Iqbal, Javed & Brooks, Robert & Galagedera, Don U.A., 2010. "Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 897-918, September.
    6. Chung, Hyunchul & Majerbi, Basma & Rizeanu, Sorin, 2015. "Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 96-125.
    7. Nader Virk & Hilal Butt, 2016. "Specification errors of asset-pricing models for a market characterized by few large capitalization firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 68-84, January.
    8. Abel, Ernest & Fletcher, Jonathan, 2004. "An empirical examination of UK emerging market unit trust performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 389-408, December.
    9. Balakumar, Suganya & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Do oil price shocks have any implications for stock return momentum?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 637-663.
    10. Sara Azher & Javed Iqbal, 2018. "Testing Conditional Asset Pricing in Pakistan: The Role of Value-at-risk and Illiquidity Factors," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 259-281, August.
    11. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 173-194.
    12. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    13. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
    14. Schrimpf, Andreas & Schröder, Michael & Stehle, Richard, 2006. "Evaluating conditional asset pricing models for the German stock market," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-043, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Mpoha, Salifya & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Assessing the extent of exchange rate risk pricing in equity markets: emerging versus developed economies," MPRA Paper 99597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    17. Liu, Ludan, 2008. "It takes a model to beat a model: Volatility bounds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-110, January.
    18. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 444-461, October.
    19. Dahlquist, Magnus & Sallstrom, Torbjorn, 2002. "An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Du, Ding, 2014. "Persistent exchange-rate movements and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Africa; Currency risk; Equity markets; Stochastic discount factor; GMM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:21:y:2014:i:c:p:133-155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.