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Spatial contagion in mortgage defaults: A spatial dynamic survival model with time and space varying coefficients

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  • Calabrese, Raffaella
  • Crook, Jonathan

Abstract

This paper proposes a spatial discrete survival model to estimate the time to default for UK mortgages. The model includes a flexible parametric link function given by the Generalised Extreme Value Distribution and a dynamic spatially varying baseline hazard function to capture neighbourhood effects over time. We incorporate time and space varying variables into the model. The gains of the proposed model are illustrated through the analysis of a dataset on around 74,000 mortgage loans issued in England and Wales from 2006 to 2015.

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  • Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan, 2020. "Spatial contagion in mortgage defaults: A spatial dynamic survival model with time and space varying coefficients," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 749-761.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:287:y:2020:i:2:p:749-761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.04.031
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    Cited by:

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    2. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan & Lindgren, Finn, 2023. "Joint models for longitudinal and discrete survival data in credit scoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1457-1473.
    3. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Lindgren, Finn & Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan, 2023. "Joint models of multivariate longitudinal outcomes and discrete survival data with INLA: An application to credit repayment behaviour," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(2), pages 860-873.
    4. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Calabrese, Raffaella & Dong, Yizhe & Shi, Baofeng, 2022. "Spatial dependence in microfinance credit default," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1071-1085.
    5. Luong, Thi Mai & Scheule, Harald, 2022. "Benchmarking forecast approaches for mortgage credit risk for forward periods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 750-767.
    6. Bocchio, Cecilia & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic scenarios on recurrent delinquency: A stress testing framework of multi-state models for mortgages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1655-1677.
    7. Yfanti, Stavroula & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zopounidis, Constantin & Christopoulos, Apostolos, 2023. "Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 813-831.
    8. Pascal Kundig & Fabio Sigrist, 2024. "A Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Model for Mortgage Credit Risk: Default Probabilities and Loan Portfolios," Papers 2410.02846, arXiv.org.
    9. Calabrese, Raffaella, 2023. "Contagion effects of UK small business failures: A spatial hierarchical autoregressive model for binary data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(2), pages 989-997.
    10. Victor Medina-Olivares & Finn Lindgren & Raffaella Calabrese & Jonathan Crook, 2023. "Joint model for longitudinal and spatio-temporal survival data," Papers 2311.04008, arXiv.org.
    11. Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Jin, Xiu, 2022. "Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Zanin, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Thorburn, Connor Innes, 2024. "Climate stress testing for mortgage default probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

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