IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v49y2014i4p598-620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Spatially Interdependent Mortgage Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Shuang Zhu
  • R. Pace

Abstract

House price regression residuals often display spatial dependence but historically mortgage models, which employ house prices, assume independence and use only the own borrower/loan characteristics. This manuscript uses a spatial probit model to investigate spatial dependence among the disturbances and the effect of borrower/loan characteristics from nearby properties on own default propensity. We find that allowing spatial dependence in the disturbances greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a probit default model, and that spillovers from risky neighbor characteristics have statistically significant and material effects on own payment default propensity. In addition, measurement of spatial effects can improve policy analysis. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Shuang Zhu & R. Pace, 2014. "Modeling Spatially Interdependent Mortgage Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 598-620, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:49:y:2014:i:4:p:598-620
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-013-9419-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-013-9419-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-013-9419-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2004. "Models for Spatially Dependent Missing Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 233-254, September.
    2. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2010. "Is neglected heterogeneity really an issue in binary and fractional regression models? A simulation exercise for logit, probit and loglog models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 987-1001, April.
    3. R. Kelley Pace & James P. LeSage, 2004. "Spatial Statistics and Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 147-148, September.
    4. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263, September.
    5. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    6. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
    7. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
    8. Giuseppe Arbia & Badi H. Baltagi (ed.), 2009. "Spatial Econometrics," Studies in Empirical Economics, Springer, number 978-3-7908-2070-6, September.
    9. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
    10. R. Pace & Shuang Zhu, 2012. "Separable spatial modeling of spillovers and disturbances," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 75-90, January.
    11. Crook, Jonathan N. & Edelman, David B. & Thomas, Lyn C., 2007. "Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1447-1465, December.
    12. Yatchew, Adonis & Griliches, Zvi, 1985. "Specification Error in Probit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 134-139, February.
    13. Basu, Sabyasachi & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1998. "Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, July.
    14. Can, Ayse & Megbolugbe, Isaac, 1997. "Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 203-222, Jan.-Marc.
    15. Phinikettos, Ioannis & Gandy, Axel, 2011. "Fast computation of high-dimensional multivariate normal probabilities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1521-1529, April.
    16. Kurt J. Beron & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 2004. "Probit in a Spatial Context: A Monte Carlo Analysis," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 8, pages 169-195, Springer.
    17. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace & Nina Lam & Richard Campanella & Xingjian Liu, 2011. "New Orleans business recovery in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(4), pages 1007-1027, October.
    18. Sumit Agarwal & Brent W. Ambrose & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony B. Sanders, 2012. "Thy Neighbor’s Mortgage: Does Living in a Subprime Neighborhood Affect One’s Probability of Default?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-22, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan, 2020. "Spatial contagion in mortgage defaults: A spatial dynamic survival model with time and space varying coefficients," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 749-761.
    2. R. Kelley Pace & Shuang Zhu, 2016. "Inferring Price Information from Mortgage Payment Behavior: a Latent Index Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 246-267, August.
    3. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Calabrese, Raffaella & Dong, Yizhe & Shi, Baofeng, 2022. "Spatial dependence in microfinance credit default," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1071-1085.
    4. R. Kelley Pace & Shuang Zhu, 2017. "Implicit Hedonic Pricing Using Mortgage Payment Information," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 387-402, April.
    5. Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Kiefer, Hua & Liu, Xiaodong, 2018. "Spillover effects in home mortgage defaults: Identifying the power neighbor," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 68-82.
    6. Juan-Gabriel Gonzalez-Morales & Marina Checa-Olivas & Rafael Cano-Guervos, 2021. "Impact of Evictions and Tourist Apartments on the Residential Rental Market in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-13, July.
    7. Pace, R. Kelley & Zhu, Shuang, 2019. "The influence of house, seller, and locational factors on the probability of sale," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-82.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Kiefer, Hua & Liu, Xiaodong, 2018. "Spillover effects in home mortgage defaults: Identifying the power neighbor," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 68-82.
    2. Catherine Baumont, 2009. "Spatial effects of urban public policies on housing values," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 301-326, June.
    3. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    4. John P. Harding & Jing Li & Stuart S. Rosenthal & Xirui Zhang, 2022. "Forced moves and home maintenance: The amplifying effects of mortgage payment burden on underwater homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 498-533, June.
    5. David Maddison, 2009. "A Spatio‐temporal Model of Farmland Values," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 171-189, February.
    6. Raymond Y. C. Tse, 2002. "Estimating Neighbourhood Effects in House Prices: Towards a New Hedonic Model Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 39(7), pages 1165-1180, June.
    7. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2014. "The Biggest Myth in Spatial Econometrics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-33, December.
    8. Brueckner, Jan K. & Calem, Paul S. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 2012. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 230-243.
    9. Weiran Huang & Ashlyn Nelson & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Foreclosure Spillovers within Broad Neighborhoods," Working Papers 2018-096, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    10. Steven Bourassa & Eva Cantoni & Martin Hoesli, 2007. "Spatial Dependence, Housing Submarkets, and House Price Prediction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 143-160, August.
    11. Antonio Páez & Fei Long & Steven Farber, 2008. "Moving Window Approaches for Hedonic Price Estimation: An Empirical Comparison of Modelling Techniques," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1565-1581, July.
    12. Marc Baudry & Masha Maslianskaia-Pautrel, 2012. "Revisiting the hedonic price method to assess the implicit price of environmental quality with market segmentation," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-45, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. E.-H. Yoo & P. Kyriakidis, 2009. "Area-to-point Kriging in spatial hedonic pricing models," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 381-406, December.
    14. François Des Rosiers & Marius Thériault & Yan Kestens & Paul Villeneuve, 2002. "Landscaping and House Values: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 139-162.
    15. Chandra Bhat, 2015. "A new spatial (social) interaction discrete choice model accommodating for unobserved effects due to endogenous network formation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(5), pages 879-914, September.
    16. Hua Sun & Yong Tu & Shi-Ming Yu, 2005. "A Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model for Multi-Unit Residential Market Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 155-187, September.
    17. Raven Molloy & Hui Shan, 2013. "The Postforeclosure Experience of U.S. Households," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 225-254, June.
    18. Christopher L. Foote & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Mortgage-Default Research and the Recent Foreclosure Crisis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 59-100, November.
    19. Chao Tian & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    20. Bo Liu & Tien Foo Sing, 2018. "“Cure” Effects and Mortgage Default: A Split Population Survival Time Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 217-251, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:49:y:2014:i:4:p:598-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.