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Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

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  • Fry, John
  • Binner, Jane M.

Abstract

Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fry, John & Binner, Jane M., 2016. "Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1014-1023.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:249:y:2016:i:3:p:1014-1023
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049
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    2. Comrie, E.L. & Burns, C. & Coulson, A.B. & Quigley, J. & Quigley, K.F., 2019. "Rationalising the use of Twitter by official organisations during risk events: Operationalising the Social Amplification of Risk Framework through causal loop diagrams," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 792-801.
    3. Choi, Tsan-Ming & Guo, Shu & Luo, Suyuan, 2020. "When blockchain meets social-media: Will the result benefit social media analytics for supply chain operations management?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Yong-ling Zhang & Xiao-bing Zhou, 2017. "The occurrence laws of campus stampede accidents in China and its prevention and control measures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 659-673, June.
    5. Aros, Susan K. & Gibbons, Deborah E., 2018. "Exploring communication media options in an inter-organizational disaster response coordination network using agent-based simulation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 451-465.
    6. Kurdi, Heba & Almulifi, Asma & Al-Megren, Shiroq & Youcef-Toumi, Kamal, 2021. "A balanced evacuation algorithm for facilities with multiple exits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 285-296.
    7. Caballero, William N. & Lunday, Brian J., 2019. "Influence modeling: Mathematical programming representations of persuasion under either risk or uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 266-282.
    8. Esposito Amideo, A. & Scaparra, M.P. & Kotiadis, K., 2019. "Optimising shelter location and evacuation routing operations: The critical issues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 279-295.
    9. Wu, Lingxiao & Yang, Dong & Wang, Shuaian & Yuan, Yun, 2020. "Evacuating offshore working barges from a land reclamation site in storm emergencies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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