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Investment using evolutionary learning methods and technical rules

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  • Kaucic, Massimiliano

Abstract

In this paper, I propose a genetic learning approach to generate technical trading systems for stock timing. The most informative technical indicators are selected from a set of almost 5000 signals by a multi-objective genetic algorithm with variable string length. Successively, these signals are combined into a unique trading signal by a learning method. I test the expert weighting solution obtained by the plurality voting committee, the Bayesian model averaging and Boosting procedures with data from the S&P 500 Composite Index, in three market phases, up-trend, down-trend and sideways-movements, covering the period 2000-2006. Computational results indicate that the near-optimal set of rules varies among market phases but presents stable results and is able to reduce or eliminate losses in down-trend periods.

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  • Kaucic, Massimiliano, 2010. "Investment using evolutionary learning methods and technical rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1717-1727, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:207:y:2010:i:3:p:1717-1727
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    1. Rubesam, Alexandre, 2022. "Machine learning portfolios with equal risk contributions: Evidence from the Brazilian market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    2. Thierry Warin & Aleksandar Stojkov, 2021. "Machine Learning in Finance: A Metadata-Based Systematic Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-31, July.
    3. Massimiliano Kaucic & Roberto Daris, 2015. "Multi-Objective Stochastic Optimization Programs for a Non-Life Insurance Company under Solvency Constraints," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-30, September.
    4. Chen, Yan & Wang, Xuancheng, 2015. "A hybrid stock trading system using genetic network programming and mean conditional value-at-risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(3), pages 861-871.
    5. Han, Chulwoo & He, Zhaodong & Toh, Alenson Jun Wei, 2023. "Pairs trading via unsupervised learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 929-947.
    6. Konstandinos Chourmouziadis & Dimitra K. Chourmouziadou & Prodromos D. Chatzoglou, 2021. "Embedding Four Medium-Term Technical Indicators to an Intelligent Stock Trading Fuzzy System for Predicting: A Portfolio Management Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1183-1216, April.
    7. Gradojevic, Nikola & Kukolj, Dragan & Adcock, Robert & Djakovic, Vladimir, 2023. "Forecasting Bitcoin with technical analysis: A not-so-random forest?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17.

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