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Scale, Variability, and the Calibration of Judgmental Prediction Intervals

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  • Lawrence, Michael
  • O'Connor, Marcus

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  • Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1993. "Scale, Variability, and the Calibration of Judgmental Prediction Intervals," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 441-458, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:56:y:1993:i:3:p:441-458
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    Cited by:

    1. Dan Zhu & Qingwei Wang & John Goddard, 2022. "A new hedging hypothesis regarding prediction interval formation in stock price forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 697-717, July.
    2. Broihanne, M.H. & Merli, M. & Roger, P., 2014. "Overconfidence, risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 64-73.
    3. Nosic, Alen & Weber, Martin, 2007. "Determinants of Risk Taking Behavior: The role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions and Beliefs," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Du, Ning & Budescu, David V., 2007. "Does past volatility affect investors' price forecasts and confidence judgements?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 497-511.
    5. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Kenneth, 2001. "The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-633.
    6. Rosdini, Dini & Sari, Prima Yusi & Amrania, Gia Kardina Prima & Yulianingsih, Pera, 2020. "Decision making biased: How visual illusion, mood, and information presentation plays a role," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2014. "Judgmental overconfidence and trading activity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 827-842.
    8. Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber, 2019. "Scale matters: risk perception, return expectations, and investment propensity under different scalings," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(1), pages 76-100, March.
    9. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
    10. Kopalle, Praveen K. & Lehmann, Donald R., 1997. "Alpha Inflation? The Impact of Eliminating Scale Items on Cronbach's Alpha," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 189-197, June.
    11. Christoph Huber & Parampreet C. Bindra & Daniel Kleinlercher, 2019. "Design-features of bubble-prone experimental asset markets with a constant FV," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(2), pages 197-209, December.
    12. Ricardo Lopes Cardoso & Rodrigo Oliveira Leite & André Carlos Busanelli de Aquino, 2016. "A Graph is Worth a Thousand Words: How Overconfidence and Graphical Disclosure of Numerical Information Influence Financial Analysts Accuracy on Decision Making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    13. Thomson, Mary E. & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex, 2003. "The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-256.
    14. Fellner, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2012. "Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 142-154.
    15. Alen Nosić & Martin Weber, 2010. "How Riskily Do I Invest? The Role of Risk Attitudes, Risk Perceptions, and Overconfidence," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(3), pages 282-301, September.

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