IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ehbiol/v18y2015icp57-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A discrete latent factor model for smoking, cancer and mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Howdon, Daniel
  • Jones, Andrew M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between smoking and ill-health, with a focus on the onset of cancer. A discrete latent factor model for smoking and health outcomes, allowing for these to be commonly affected by unobserved factors, is jointly estimated, using the British Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS) dataset. Post-estimation predictions suggest the reduction in time-to-cancer to be 5.7 years for those with an exposure of 30 pack-years, compared to never-smokers. Estimation of posterior probabilities for class membership shows that individuals in certain classes exhibit similar observables but highly divergent health outcomes, suggesting that unobserved factors influence outcomes. The use of a joint model changes the results substantially. The results show that failure to account for unobserved heterogeneity leads to differences in survival times between those with different smoking exposures to be overestimated by more than 50% (males, with 30 pack-years of exposure).

Suggested Citation

  • Howdon, Daniel & Jones, Andrew M., 2015. "A discrete latent factor model for smoking, cancer and mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 57-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:18:y:2015:i:c:p:57-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2015.03.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X15000313
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ehb.2015.03.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Adda & Valérie Lechene, 2013. "Health Selection and the Effect of Smoking on Mortality," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 902-931, July.
    2. David M. Cutler, 2008. "Are We Finally Winning the War on Cancer?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    3. Roberto G. Gutierrez, 2002. "Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(1), pages 22-44, February.
    4. Kaprio, Jaakko & Koskenvuo, Markku, 1989. "Twins, smoking and mortality: A 12-year prospective study of smoking-discordant twin pairs," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1083-1089, January.
    5. Balia, Silvia & Jones, Andrew M., 2008. "Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Contoyannis, Paul & Jones, Andrew M., 2004. "Socio-economic status, health and lifestyle," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 965-995, September.
    7. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    8. Silvia Balia & Andrew M. Jones, 2011. "Catching the habit: a study of inequality of opportunity in smoking‐related mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(1), pages 175-194, January.
    9. Heather Brown & Marjon van der Pol, 2014. "The Role Of Time Preferences In The Intergenerational Transfer Of Smoking," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1493-1501, December.
    10. Krall, E.A. & Valadian, E. & Dwyer, J.T. & Gardner, J., 1989. "Accuracy of recalled smoking data," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 79(2), pages 200-202.
    11. Vallejo-Torres, Laura & Morris, Stephen, 2010. "The contribution of smoking and obesity to income-related inequalities in health in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(6), pages 1189-1198, September.
    12. Mroz, Thomas A., 1999. "Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: Estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 233-274, October.
    13. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    14. Bo E. Honoré & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "Bounds in Competing Risks Models and the War on Cancer," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1675-1698, November.
    15. Pedro Rosa Dias, 2009. "Inequality of opportunity in health: evidence from a UK cohort study," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(9), pages 1057-1074, September.
    16. Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
    17. Saha, Atanu & Hilton, Lynette, 1997. "Expo-power: A flexible hazard function for duration data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 227-233, July.
    18. Pedro Rosa Dias & Andrew M. Jones, 2007. "Giving equality of opportunity a fair innings," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 109-112, February.
    19. Douglas, Stratford & Hariharan, Govind, 1994. "The hazard of starting smoking: Estimates from a split population duration model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-230, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silvia Balia & Andrew M. Jones, 2011. "Catching the habit: a study of inequality of opportunity in smoking‐related mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(1), pages 175-194, January.
    2. Howdon, D., 2012. "Time and chance happen to them all? Duration modelling versus lifetime incidence of cancer," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 12/06, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11292 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Florence Jusot & Sandy Tubeuf & Alain Trannoy, 2012. "Les différences d'état de santé en France : inégalités des chances ou reflet des comportements à risques ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 455(1), pages 37-51.
    5. Kai Hong & Peter A. Savelyev & Kegon T. K. Tan, 2020. "Understanding the Mechanisms Linking College Education with Longevity," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 371-400.
    6. Silvia Balia, 2007. "Reporting expected longevity and smoking: evidence from the SHARE," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/10, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Pilar García‐Gómez & Erik Schokkaert & Tom Van Ourti & Teresa Bago d'Uva, 2015. "Inequity in the Face of Death," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(10), pages 1348-1367, October.
    8. Damien Bricard & Florence Jusot, 2012. "Milieu d’origine, situation sociale et parcours tabagique en France," Post-Print hal-01593798, HAL.
    9. Thomas A. Mroz & Gabriel Picone & Frank Sloan & Arseniy P. Yashkin, 2016. "Screening For A Chronic Disease: A Multiple Stage Duration Model With Partial Observability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(3), pages 915-934, August.
    10. Ma, Chao & Gu, Hai & Han, Jianyu, 2013. "我国健康服务利用的机会不平等研究:基于chns2009 数据的实证分析 [A Study on the Inequality of Opportunity in Health Care Utilization:Evidence from CHNS 2009]," MPRA Paper 53765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9524 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sandy Tubeuf & Florence Jusot & Damien Bricard, 2012. "Mediating Role Of Education And Lifestyles In The Relationship Between Early‐Life Conditions And Health: Evidence From The 1958 British Cohort," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(S1), pages 129-150, June.
    13. Vincenzo Carrieri & Andrew M. Jones, 2018. "Inequality of opportunity in health: A decomposition‐based approach," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(12), pages 1981-1995, December.
    14. Silvia Balia & Andrew M. Jones, 2007. "Unravelling the influence of smoking initiation and cessation on premature mortality using a common latent factor model," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 07/06, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9292 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ovrum, Arnstein & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2011. "Inequality in Health Versus Inequality in Lifestyles," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114556, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Silvia Balia, 2014. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from SHARE," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 753-780, September.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5065 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Michael Kuhn & Alexia Prskawetz & Uwe Sunde, 2014. "Health, education, and retirement over the prolonged life cycle: a selective survey of recent research," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22.
    20. Felipe Rivera, 2017. "Health opportunities in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 87, pages 125-164, Julio - D.
    21. G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.
    22. Pedro Rosa Dias, 2010. "Modelling opportunity in health under partial observability of circumstances," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 252-264, March.
    23. Florence Jusot & Sandy Tubeuf & Alain Trannoy, 2010. "Effort or Circumstances: Does the Correlation Matter for Inequality of Opportunity in Health?," Working Papers DT33, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Jul 2010.
    24. Pierre Koning & Dinand Webbink & Nicholas Martin, 2015. "The effect of education on smoking behavior: new evidence from smoking durations of a sample of twins," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1479-1497, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health inequality; Duration analysis; Smoking; Cancer;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:18:y:2015:i:c:p:57-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622964 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.