Twins, smoking and mortality: A 12-year prospective study of smoking-discordant twin pairs

Despite the increasing scientific evidence for a causal role of tobacco smoking in lung cancer and coronary heart disease, critics, several decades ago, put forward an alternative hypothesis. The constitutional hypothesis has stated that there are genetic or other common factors, which predispose both to smoking and disease, but that the two are not causally related. A critical test of this hypothesis is the study of disease in monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs in which one smokes and the other never has. Earlier twin studies found only small differences in the mortality of smoking and nonsmoking twins of discordant pairs. In the Finnish Twin Cohort, a population-based panel of adult like-sexed twin pairs, a questionnaire study carried in 1975 permitted identification of twin pairs discordant for cigarette smoking. The nonsmoking cotwins had never been regular smokers. The smoking twins were divided into 1278 current smokers [CS; 143 MZ and 598 dizygotic (DZ) males and 171 MZ and 585 DZ females] and 1210 former smokers (FS; 129 MZ and 408 DZ males and 113 MZ and 341 DZ females). Exposure to tobacco was much higher among males; over 25% of men smoked 20 or more cigarettes daily compared to less than 10% of women. Follow-up of mortality yielded data on time and cause of death. Analyzing on first deaths from concordant pairs, there were 13 deaths in the smokers of male CS MZ pairs and 1 death in the nonsmoking cotwins (relative RISK = 13.0, P