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Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows

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  • Cerqua, Augusto
  • Zampollo, Federico

Abstract

We investigate the influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners' location choices. Considering Italian municipal elections from 2000 to 2018, we create a comprehensive database that includes a classification of the anti-/pro-immigration axis of leading political parties based on specialists' assessments. Adopting a bias-corrected regression discontinuity design, we find that the election of a mayor supported by an anti-immigrant coalition significantly affects immigrants' location choices only when considering the most recent years. This finding is not driven by the enactment of policies against immigrants but by an ‘inhospitality effect’, which has become stronger over time due to the exacerbation of political propaganda. Therefore, foreigners' flows are influenced by the local political environment only when immigration is central to the political debate.

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  • Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2023. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:77:y:2023:i:c:s0176268022000751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102275
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    1. Luca Bellodi & Frederic Docquier & Stefano Iandolo & Massimo Morelli & Riccardo Turati, 2024. "Digging Up Trenches: Populism, Selective Mobility, and the Political Polarization of Italian Municipalities," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24216, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. repec:irs:cepswp:2024-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cerruti, Gianluca & Robbiano, Simone, 2024. "Presence of Migrants and Voting Behavior in Europe: An Overview of the Empirical Literature," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(4), pages 515-554.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Political parties; Regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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