IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v129y2020ics0014292120301951.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The termination of international sanctions: explaining target compliance and sender capitulation

Author

Listed:
  • Attia, Hana
  • Grauvogel, Julia
  • von Soest, Christian

Abstract

With the proliferation of sanctions after the end of the Cold War, the termination of these punitive measures has become a ubiquitous phenomenon in international politics. Yet, research has hitherto almost exclusively focused on sanctions’ implementation and effectiveness, whereas their termination has received little attention. In this paper, we draw on studies analyzing the varying duration of sanctions to examine under which conditions they end. In contrast to prior research that has mostly treated the end of sanctions as a single category, our analysis disaggregates sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. We run a competing risks model using novel dyadic sanctions data and show that the determinants of both outcomes significantly diverge. While poor economic health and high political volatility in the target country make it significantly more likely to comply, political alignment between the sender and target and leadership changes in the sender country lead to a higher probability of sender capitulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Attia, Hana & Grauvogel, Julia & von Soest, Christian, 2020. "The termination of international sanctions: explaining target compliance and sender capitulation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:129:y:2020:i:c:s0014292120301951
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292120301951
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103565?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shane Bonetti, 1994. "The Persistence and Frequency of Economic Sanctions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Manas Chatterji & Henk Jager & Annemarie Rima (ed.), The Economics of International Security, chapter 17, pages 183-193, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Dursun Peksen, 2019. "Autocracies and Economic Sanctions: The Divergent Impact of Authoritarian Regime Type on Sanctions Success," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 253-268, April.
    3. Haggard, Stephan & Noland, Marcus, 2016. "Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of North Korea," MPRA Paper 105812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1999. "Same Song, Same Refrain? Economic Sanctions in the 1990's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 403-408, May.
    5. Unknown, 2014. "Media Coverage 2014," 2014: Ethics, Efficiency and Food Security: Feeding the 9 Billion, Well, 26-28 August 2014 225573, Crawford Fund.
    6. Irfan Nooruddin, 2002. "Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 59-75, January.
    7. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2007. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (hardcover)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4075, January.
    8. Nikolay Marinov, 2005. "Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 564-576, July.
    9. Solomon Major, 2012. "Timing Is Everything: Economic Sanctions, Regime Type, and Domestic Instability," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 79-110, January.
    10. Susan Hannah Allen, 2005. "The Determinants of Economic Sanctions Success and Failure," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 117-138, March.
    11. Jones, Lee, 2015. "Societies Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198749325.
    12. Fiona McGillivray & Allan C. Stam, 2004. "Political Institutions, Coercive Diplomacy, and the Duration of Economic Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 154-172, April.
    13. Maxim Engers & Jonathan Eaton, 1999. "Sanctions: Some Simple Analytics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 409-414, May.
    14. Amanda Murdie & Dursun Peksen, 2013. "The impact of human rights INGO activities on economic sanctions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 33-53, March.
    15. Margaret P. Doxey, 1980. "Economic Sanctions and International Enforcement," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-04335-4.
    16. Carter, David B. & Signorino, Curtis S., 2010. "Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, July.
    17. Chao Jing & William H. Kaempfer & Anton D. Lowenberg, 2003. "Instrument Choice and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 40(5), pages 519-535, September.
    18. Christian von Soest & Michael Wahman, 2015. "Not all dictators are equal," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(1), pages 17-31, January.
    19. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1990. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: 2nd Edition," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who Is to Suffer? Quantifying the Impact of Sanctions on German Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16146, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2024. "Political economy of international sanctions," ILE Working Paper Series 81, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    3. Gutmann, Jerg & Langer, Pascal & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2024. "International sanctions and emigration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Teemu Makkonen & Timo Mitze, 2021. "Geo-political conflicts, economic sanctions and international knowledge flows," Papers 2112.00564, arXiv.org.
    5. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    6. Simola, Heli, 2023. "What the literature says about the effects of sanctions on Russia," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Hana Attia & Julia Grauvogel, 2023. "International Sanctions Termination, 1990–2018: Introducing the IST dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 709-719, July.
    8. Hatipoglu, Emre & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Belaïd, Fateh, 2023. "Environmental consequences of geopolitical crises: The case of economic sanctions and emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William Seitz & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Sanctions and public opinion: The case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 817-843, October.
    2. David Lektzian & Glen Biglaiser, 2014. "The effect of foreign direct investment on the use and success of US sanctions," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 70-93, February.
    3. von Soest, Christian & Wahman, Michael, 2013. "Sanctions and Democratization in the Post-Cold War Era," GIGA Working Papers 212, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    4. von Soest, Christian & Wahman, Michael, 2013. "Are All Dictators Equal? The Selective Targeting of Democratic Sanctions against Authoritarian Regimes," GIGA Working Papers 230, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    5. Mikhail A Alexseev & Henry E Hale, 2020. "Crimea come what may: Do economic sanctions backfire politically?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(2), pages 344-359, March.
    6. Morgan, T. Clifton & Kobayashi, Yoshiharu, 2021. "Talking to the hand: Bargaining, strategic interaction, and economic sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Mehmet Onder, 2019. "Regime Type, Issue Type and Economic Sanctions: The Role of Domestic Players," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Grauvogel, Julia & von Soest, Christian, 2013. "Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," GIGA Working Papers 235, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    9. Naghavi, Alireza & Pignataro, Giuseppe, 2015. "Theocracy and resilience against economic sanctions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Tomas Sjostrom, 2023. "Optimal Compellance," Departmental Working Papers 202302, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    11. Dizaji, S.F. & Lis, P. & Murshed, S.M. & Zweiri, M., 2020. "What the political economy literature tells us about blockades and sanctions," ISS Working Papers - General Series 130655, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    12. David Lektzian & Mark Souva, 2007. "An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(6), pages 848-871, December.
    13. Coyne,Christopher J., 2020. "Defense, Peace, and War Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108724036, January.
    14. Patrick M Weber & Gerald Schneider, 2022. "Post-Cold War sanctioning by the EU, the UN, and the US: Introducing the EUSANCT Dataset," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(1), pages 97-114, January.
    15. Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, 2017. "Sanctions and export deflection: evidence from Iran," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 319-355.
    16. Oechslin, Manuel, 2014. "Targeting autocrats: Economic sanctions and regime change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-40.
    17. Elena V McLean & Kaisa H Hinkkainen & Luis De la Calle & Navin A Bapat, 2018. "Economic sanctions and the dynamics of terrorist campaigns," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 378-401, July.
    18. Daniel McCormack & Henry Pascoe, 2017. "Sanctions and Preventive War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(8), pages 1711-1739, September.
    19. Susan Hannah Allen, 2008. "The Domestic Political Costs of Economic Sanctions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(6), pages 916-944, December.
    20. Roel Dom & Lionel Roger, 2018. "Economic sanctions and domestic debt: Burundi's fiscal response to the suspension of budget support," Discussion Papers 2018-12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:129:y:2020:i:c:s0014292120301951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.