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Exchange rate fluctuations, plant turnover and productivity

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  • Tomlin, Ben

Abstract

In a small open economy, fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. This paper develops a structural model that captures the effect of plant-level productivity and real exchange rate fluctuations on plant entry and exit decisions, and how this, in turn, affects average industry productivity. Using plant-level data for a single industry, the model's dynamic parameters are estimated in two-stages using the Nested-Pseudo Likelihood algorithm and the Method of Simulated Moments. Simulations of the model are used to investigate the effects of shocks to the exchange rate process on productivity. The results suggest that, given the mechanisms highlighted in the model, transitory and permanent depreciations have similar long-term effects on average industry productivity.

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  • Tomlin, Ben, 2014. "Exchange rate fluctuations, plant turnover and productivity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 12-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:35:y:2014:i:c:p:12-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2014.05.002
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    3. Chin Hee Hahn & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2023. "Real exchange rate shocks and new product margins in the export market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 208-235, January.
    4. Kancs, d’Artis & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2016. "R&D and non-linear productivity growth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 634-646.
    5. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2018. "Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration," Staff Working Papers 18-15, Bank of Canada.
    6. Eric C. Y. Ng & Malick Souare, 2014. "On investment and exchange-rate movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(19), pages 2301-2315, July.
    7. John R. Baldwin & Wulong Gu & Beiling Yan, 2013. "Export Growth, Capacity Utilization, and Productivity Growth: Evidence from the Canadian Manufacturing Plants," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 665-688, December.
    8. Vivek Farias & Bar Ifrach & Gabriel Weintraub, 2012. "A Framework for Dynamic Oligopoly in Concentrated Industries," 2012 Meeting Papers 505, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Kim Huynh & Robert Petrunia & Joel Rodrigue & Walter Steingress, 2023. "Exporting and Investment Under Credit Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-10, Bank of Canada.
    10. Toraganlı, Nazlı & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2016. "Exchange rates and firm survival: An examination with Turkish firm-level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 433-443.
    11. Joseph Olufemi OGUNJOBI & Olufemi Adebayo OLADIPO (PhD) & Oluwasegun ESEYIN & Olaoluwa OPAOLA & Ishola James ARANSIOLA (PhD), 2022. "Exchange Rate and Agricultural Exports: Evidence From Nigeria (1981-2019)," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 9(4), pages 89-101, April.
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    15. Aguirregabiria, Victor, 2009. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games Using the Nested Pseudo Likelihood Algorithm: Code and Application," MPRA Paper 17329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Salamat Ali, 2017. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Exports: Firm-level Evidence from Pakistan," Discussion Papers 2017-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Exchange rates; Structural estimation; Dynamics; Micro data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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