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Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross-validation

Author

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  • Gao, Yan
  • Zhang, Xinyu
  • Wang, Shouyang
  • Zou, Guohua

Abstract

This paper develops a frequentist model averaging method based on the leave-subject-out cross-validation. This method is applicable not only to averaging longitudinal data models, but also to averaging time series models which can have heteroscedastic errors. The resulting model averaging estimators are proved to be asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible squared errors. Both simulation study and empirical example show the superiority of the proposed estimators over their competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Yan & Zhang, Xinyu & Wang, Shouyang & Zou, Guohua, 2016. "Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross-validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 139-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:192:y:2016:i:1:p:139-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.07.006
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    Cited by:

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    3. Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An, 2023. "Model averaging for asymptotically optimal combined forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 592-607.
    4. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
    5. Zhao, Shangwei & Zhou, Jianhong & Li, Hongjun, 2016. "Model averaging with high-dimensional dependent data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 68-71.
    6. Hui Xiao & Yiguo Sun, 2019. "On Tuning Parameter Selection in Model Selection and Model Averaging: A Monte Carlo Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 974-992.
    8. Haili Zhang & Guohua Zou, 2020. "Cross-Validation Model Averaging for Generalized Functional Linear Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-35, February.
    9. Michael Schomaker & Christian Heumann, 2020. "When and when not to use optimal model averaging," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2221-2240, October.
    10. Wang, Weiwei & Zhang, Qi & Zhang, Xinyu & Li, Xinmin, 2021. "Model averaging based on generalized method of moments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Liao, Jun & Wan, Alan T.K. & He, Shuyuan & Zou, Guohua, 2022. "Optimal model averaging for multivariate regression models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    12. Shou-Yung Yin & Chu-An Liu & Chang-Ching Lin, 2021. "Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging for Large Panels With a Multifactor Error Structure," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 54-68, January.
    13. Rongjie Jiang & Liming Wang & Yang Bai, 2021. "Optimal model averaging estimator for semi-functional partially linear models," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 167-194, February.
    14. Shangwei Zhao & Jun Liao & Dalei Yu, 2020. "Model averaging estimator in ridge regression and its large sample properties," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1719-1739, August.
    15. Liao, Jun & Zou, Guohua & Gao, Yan & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Model averaging prediction for time series models with a diverging number of parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 190-221.
    16. Tao Huang & Jialiang Li, 2018. "Semiparametric model average prediction in panel data analysis," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 125-144, January.
    17. Liao, Jun & Zou, Guohua, 2020. "Corrected Mallows criterion for model averaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Liao, Jun & Zong, Xianpeng & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2019. "Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross-validation for vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 35-60.
    19. Fang, Fang & Li, Jialiang & Xia, Xiaochao, 2022. "Semiparametric model averaging prediction for dichotomous response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(2), pages 219-245.
    20. Zhang, Xiaomeng & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Optimal model averaging based on forward-validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    21. Xiaochao Xia, 2021. "Model averaging prediction for nonparametric varying-coefficient models with B-spline smoothing," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2885-2905, December.
    22. Christian Brownlees & Vladislav Morozov, 2022. "Unit Averaging for Heterogeneous Panels," Papers 2210.14205, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    23. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2022. "Forecast combination for VARs in large N and T panels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 142-164.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic optimality; Leave-subject-out cross-validation; Longitudinal data; Model averaging; Time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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