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On Asymptotic Optimality of Least Squares Model Averaging When True Model Is Included

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  • Wenchao Xu
  • Xinyu Zhang

Abstract

Asymptotic optimality is a key theoretical property in model averaging. Due to technical difficulties, existing studies rely on restricted weight sets or the assumption that there is no true model with fixed dimensions in the candidate set. The focus of this paper is to overcome these difficulties. Surprisingly, we discover that when the penalty factor in the weight selection criterion diverges with a certain order and the true model dimension is fixed, asymptotic loss optimality does not hold, but asymptotic risk optimality does. This result differs from the corresponding result of Fang et al. (2023, Econometric Theory 39, 412-441) and reveals that using the discrete weight set of Hansen (2007, Econometrica 75, 1175-1189) can yield opposite asymptotic properties compared to using the usual weight set. Simulation studies illustrate the theoretical findings in a variety of settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenchao Xu & Xinyu Zhang, 2024. "On Asymptotic Optimality of Least Squares Model Averaging When True Model Is Included," Papers 2411.09258, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2411.09258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jie Ding & Vahid Tarokh & Yuhong Yang, 2018. "Model Selection Techniques -- An Overview," Papers 1810.09583, arXiv.org.
    2. Zhang, Xinyu & Liu, Chu-An, 2019. "Inference After Model Averaging In Linear Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 816-841, August.
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    6. Xinyu Zhang & Guohua Zou & Hua Liang & Raymond J. Carroll, 2020. "Parsimonious Model Averaging With a Diverging Number of Parameters," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(530), pages 972-984, April.
    7. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.
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    18. Liang, Hua & Zou, Guohua & Wan, Alan T. K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Optimal Weight Choice for Frequentist Model Average Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(495), pages 1053-1066.
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