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Modelling the spread of a novel endosymbiont infection in field populations of an aphid pest

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  • Slavenko, Alex
  • Ross, Perran A
  • Mata, Luis
  • Hoffmann, Ary A
  • Umina, Paul A

Abstract

Endosymbiotic bacteria are being increasingly considered in novel methods of suppressing pest populations and/or reducing their potential to vector viruses. Here, we develop a generic modelling approach to explore the potential impacts of endosymbionts on pest populations. The model is presented as a modular R package, EndoSim. We use it to model demographic changes in the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae), which has recently been transinfected with the facultative endosymbiont, Rickettsiella. This novel transinfection has deleterious fitness effects following transfer to M. persicae. We consider a range of scenarios including different temperatures, thermal response curves, plant-based transmission dynamics, introduction dates and initial introduction sizes to investigate conditions under which Rickettsiella is expected to suppress M. persicae populations. We show that impacts on field pest populations are influenced by endosymbiont transmission dynamics, which are temperature-dependent, as well as aphid population processes. Our modelling approach suggests Rickettsiella could be used as a potential biological control to suppress M. persicae in natural settings. Furthermore, it highlights critical information that is required to accurately estimate the likely efficacy of novel endosymbiont transinfections in aphid pest control.

Suggested Citation

  • Slavenko, Alex & Ross, Perran A & Mata, Luis & Hoffmann, Ary A & Umina, Paul A, 2024. "Modelling the spread of a novel endosymbiont infection in field populations of an aphid pest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 497(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:497:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024002394
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. A. Hoffmann & B. L. Montgomery & J. Popovici & I. Iturbe-Ormaetxe & P. H. Johnson & F. Muzzi & M. Greenfield & M. Durkan & Y. S. Leong & Y. Dong & H. Cook & J. Axford & A. G. Callahan & N. Kenny & , 2011. "Successful establishment of Wolbachia in Aedes populations to suppress dengue transmission," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 454-457, August.
    2. Barton, Madeleine & Parry, Hazel & Ward, Samantha & Hoffmann, Ary A. & Umina, Paul A. & van Helden, Maarten & Macfadyen, Sarina, 2021. "Forecasting impacts of biological control under future climates: mechanistic modelling of an aphid pest and a parasitic wasp," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
    3. Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Tipraqsa, Prasnee, 2012. "Agricultural pesticides and land use intensification in high, middle and low income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626.
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