Plant-host shift, spatial persistence, and the viability of an invasive insect population

Assessing the effects of a plant-host shift is important for monitoring insect populations over long time periods and for interventions in a conservation or pest management framework. In a heterogeneous environment, individuals may disperse between sources and sinks in order to persist. Here we propose a single-species two-patch model that aims to capture the generational movement of an insect that exhibits density-dependent dispersal, to see how shifting between hosts could alter its viability and asymptotic dynamics. We then analyse the stability and persistence properties of the model and further validate it using parameter estimates derived from laboratory experiments. In order to evaluate the potential of this model, we applied it to Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), which has become a harmful pest in several countries around the world. Although many studies have investigated the preference and attractiveness of potential hosts on this invasive drosophilid, no studies thus far have investigated whether a shift of fruit host could affect such a species’ ecological viability or spatiotemporal persistence. The model results show that a shift in host choice can significantly affect the growth potential and fecundity of a species such as D. suzukii, which ultimately could aid such invasive populations in their ability to persist within a changing environment.