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North American invasion of Spotted-Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii): A mechanistic model of population dynamics

Author

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  • Langille, Aaron B.
  • Arteca, Ellen M.
  • Ryan, Geraldine D.
  • Emiljanowicz, Lisa M.
  • Newman, Jonathan A.

Abstract

Drosophila suzukii is a relatively new threat to the soft-skinned fruit industry in North America. The presence of this pest in North America is a concern and assessing the risk of potential infestation and damage can help guide regional management strategies. We have developed a continuous time stage structured population model parameterized with empirical data based on laboratory observations. The principle environmental driver of vital rates (mortality, fecundity and development) for the model is temperature though our results suggest that reproductive diapause and quality of fruit available to the population may also have significant effect on population size. The model was run with several generalized temperature profiles and various observed temperature data sets for locations known to be important for berry production. While southern regions appear to be most suitable for supporting high population densities due to warm temperatures throughout the year, northern regions with moderate temperatures may also be susceptible due to a lack of extreme cold or heat, both of which limit development and increase mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Langille, Aaron B. & Arteca, Ellen M. & Ryan, Geraldine D. & Emiljanowicz, Lisa M. & Newman, Jonathan A., 2016. "North American invasion of Spotted-Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii): A mechanistic model of population dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 336(C), pages 70-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:336:y:2016:i:c:p:70-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.05.014
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    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335548 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pasquali, S. & Soresina, C. & Gilioli, G., 2019. "The effects of fecundity, mortality and distribution of the initial condition in phenological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 45-58.
    3. de Godoy, Isabelle Bueno Silva & McGrane-Corrigan, Blake & Mason, Oliver & Moral, Rafael de Andrade & Godoy, Wesley Augusto Conde, 2023. "Plant-host shift, spatial persistence, and the viability of an invasive insect population," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).

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