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Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

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  • Uttam Babu Shrestha
  • Kamaljit S Bawa

Abstract

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Suggested Citation

  • Uttam Babu Shrestha & Kamaljit S Bawa, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-11, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0106405
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0106405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Uttam Babu Shrestha & Asheshwor Man Shrestha & Suman Aryal & Sujata Shrestha & Madhu Sudan Gautam & Hemant Ojha, 2019. "Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 315-334, June.
    2. Choden, Kunzang & Nitschke, Craig R. & Stewart, Stephen B. & Keenan, Rodney J., 2021. "The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    3. Upendra Bom & John Tiefenbacher & Shashidhar Belbase, 2023. "Individual and community perceptions of climate change in Lower Mustang, Nepal," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 5997-6031, July.
    4. Bobrowski, Maria & Weidinger, Johannes & Schwab, Niels & Schickhoff, Udo, 2021. "Searching for ecology in species distribution models in the Himalayas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    5. Malay Pramanik & Atul Kumar Diwakar & Poli Dash & Sylvia Szabo & Indrajit Pal, 2021. "Conservation planning of cash crops species (Garcinia gummi-gutta) under current and future climate in the Western Ghats, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5345-5370, April.
    6. Yuncheng Zhao & Mingyue Zhao & Lei Zhang & Chunyi Wang & Yinlong Xu, 2021. "Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea ( Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.

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