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Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Author

Listed:
  • Irfan Rashid
  • Shakil Romshoo
  • Rajiv Chaturvedi
  • N. Ravindranath
  • Raman Sukumar
  • Mathangi Jayaraman
  • Thatiparthi Lakshmi
  • Jagmohan Sharma

Abstract

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960–1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Irfan Rashid & Shakil Romshoo & Rajiv Chaturvedi & N. Ravindranath & Raman Sukumar & Mathangi Jayaraman & Thatiparthi Lakshmi & Jagmohan Sharma, 2015. "Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 601-613, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:601-613
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1456-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rajiv Chaturvedi & Ranjith Gopalakrishnan & Mathangi Jayaraman & Govindasamy Bala & N. Joshi & Raman Sukumar & N. Ravindranath, 2011. "Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 119-142, February.
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    1. Sajid Khan & Zishan Ahmad Wani & Rameez Ahmad & Kailash S. Gaira & Susheel Verma, 2024. "Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20355-20377, August.
    2. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    3. Irfan Rashid & Ulfat Majeed & Sheikh Aneaus & Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas & Markus Stoffel & Nadeem Ahmad Najar & Imtiyaz Ahmad Bhat & Sonam Lotus, 2020. "Impacts of Erratic Snowfall on Apple Orchards in Kashmir Valley, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Sajid Khan & Kailash S. Gaira & Mohd Asgher & Susheel Verma & Shreekar Pant & Dinesh K. Agrawala & Saud Alamri & Manzer H. Siddiqui & Mahipal Singh Kesawat, 2023. "Temperature Induced Flowering Phenology of Olea ferruginea Royle: A Climate Change Effect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.

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