IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v386y2018icp98-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Muñoz-Mas, Rafael
  • Marcos-Garcia, Patricia
  • Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio
  • Martínez-García, Francisco J.
  • Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel
  • Martínez-Capel, Francisco

Abstract

A fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) for the short (2011–2040) and mid (2041–2070) term horizons. The hydraulic and hydrologic modelling were undertaken with process-based numerical models (i.e., River2D© and HBV-light) while the water temperature was modelled by assembling the predictions of three machine learning techniques (M5, Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines and Support Vector Regression). The predicted rise in the water temperature will not be compensated by the more benign lower flows. Consequently, the suitable spawning habitat will be reduced between 15.4–48.7%. The entire population shall suffer the effects of climate change and will probably be extirpated from the downstream segments of the river.

Suggested Citation

  • Muñoz-Mas, Rafael & Marcos-Garcia, Patricia & Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio & Martínez-García, Francisco J. & Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel & Martínez-Capel, Francisco, 2018. "Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 386(C), pages 98-114.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:386:y:2018:i:c:p:98-114
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.08.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380018302813
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.08.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mouton, Ans M. & Schneider, Matthias & Peter, Armin & Holzer, Georg & Müller, Rudolf & Goethals, Peter L.M. & De Pauw, Niels, 2008. "Optimisation of a fuzzy physical habitat model for spawning European grayling (Thymallus thymallus L.) in the Aare river (Thun, Switzerland)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 122-132.
    2. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    3. Mullen, Katharine M. & Ardia, David & Gil, David L. & Windover, Donald & Cline, James, 2011. "DEoptim: An R Package for Global Optimization by Differential Evolution," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 40(i06).
    4. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0.
    5. Muñoz-Mas, Rafael & Vezza, Paolo & Alcaraz-Hernández, Juan Diego & Martínez-Capel, Francisco, 2016. "Risk of invasion predicted with support vector machines: A case study on northern pike (Esox Lucius, L.) and bleak (Alburnus alburnus, L.)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 123-134.
    6. Christoph Hauer & Günther Unfer & Hubert Holzmann & Stefan Schmutz & Helmut Habersack, 2013. "The impact of discharge change on physical instream habitats and its response to river morphology," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 827-850, February.
    7. Mouton, Ans M. & De Baets, Bernard & Goethals, Peter L.M., 2010. "Ecological relevance of performance criteria for species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1995-2002.
    8. Austin, Mike, 2007. "Species distribution models and ecological theory: A critical assessment and some possible new approaches," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 1-19.
    9. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clara Estrela-Segrelles & Gabriel Gómez-Martínez & Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín, 2023. "Climate Change Risks on Mediterranean River Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures (Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2757-2770, May.
    2. Kim, Yongeun & Lee, Minyoung & Hong, Jinsol & Lee, Yun-Sik & Wee, June & Cho, Kijong, 2024. "Development of a fuzzy logic-embedded system dynamics model to simulate complex socio-ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gobeyn, Sacha & Mouton, Ans M. & Cord, Anna F. & Kaim, Andrea & Volk, Martin & Goethals, Peter L.M., 2019. "Evolutionary algorithms for species distribution modelling: A review in the context of machine learning," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 392(C), pages 179-195.
    2. Mouton, Ans M. & De Baets, Bernard & Goethals, Peter L.M., 2010. "Ecological relevance of performance criteria for species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1995-2002.
    3. Mouton, Ans M. & De Baets, Bernard & Van Broekhoven, Ester & Goethals, Peter L.M., 2009. "Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(15), pages 1776-1786.
    4. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    5. Scheiter, Simon & Savadogo, Patrice, 2016. "Ecosystem management can mitigate vegetation shifts induced by climate change in West Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 19-27.
    6. Mouton, A.M. & Dillen, A. & Van den Neucker, T. & Buysse, D. & Stevens, M. & Coeck, J., 2012. "Impact of sampling efficiency on the performance of data-driven fish habitat models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 94-102.
    7. Wekesa, Bright Masakha, 2017. "Effect Of Climate Smart Agricultural Practices On Food Security Of Small Scale Farmers In Teso North Sub-County, Kenya," Research Theses 276427, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    8. Nölte, Anja & Yousefpour, Rasoul & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2020. "Changes in sessile oak (Quercus petraea) productivity under climate change by improved leaf phenology in the 3-PG model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    9. Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini & Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Fereydoun Radmanesh & Jahangir Abedi Koupai & Shahrokh Soltaninia, 2021. "Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4855-4875, November.
    10. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    11. Fukuda, Shinji & De Baets, Bernard & Mouton, Ans M. & Waegeman, Willem & Nakajima, Jun & Mukai, Takahiko & Hiramatsu, Kazuaki & Onikura, Norio, 2011. "Effect of model formulation on the optimization of a genetic Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy system for fish habitat suitability evaluation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1401-1413.
    12. Muñoz-Mas, R. & Martínez-Capel, F. & Alcaraz-Hernández, J.D. & Mouton, A.M., 2015. "Can multilayer perceptron ensembles model the ecological niche of freshwater fish species?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 72-81.
    13. Yi, Yujun & Cheng, Xi & Yang, Zhifeng & Wieprecht, Silke & Zhang, Shanghong & Wu, Yingjie, 2017. "Evaluating the ecological influence of hydraulic projects: A review of aquatic habitat suitability models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 748-762.
    14. Scheiter, Simon & Schulte, Judith & Pfeiffer, Mirjam & Martens, Carola & Erasmus, Barend F.N. & Twine, Wayne C., 2019. "How Does Climate Change Influence the Economic Value of Ecosystem Services in Savanna Rangelands?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 342-356.
    15. Orestis Kairis & Andreas Karamanos & Dimitrios Voloudakis & John Kapsomenakis & Chrysoula Aratzioglou & Christos Zerefos & Constantinos Kosmas, 2022. "Identifying Degraded and Sensitive to Desertification Agricultural Soils in Thessaly, Greece, under Simulated Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Findlay, Christopher & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2020. "Management adaptation to flood in Guangdong Province in China: Do property rights Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    18. Nathalie Spittler & Ganna Gladkykh & Arnaud Diemer & Brynhildur Davidsdottir, 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development," Post-Print hal-02127724, HAL.
    19. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    20. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Differential evolution; HBV-light; M5; Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines; Support Vector Regression; Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rule-based system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:386:y:2018:i:c:p:98-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.