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Identifying Degraded and Sensitive to Desertification Agricultural Soils in Thessaly, Greece, under Simulated Future Climate Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Orestis Kairis

    (Laboratory of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Agricultural University of Athens, 75 Iera Odos Street, GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

  • Andreas Karamanos

    (Faculty of Crop Science, Agricultural University of Athens, 75 Iera Odos Street, GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

  • Dimitrios Voloudakis

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, GR-10680 Athens, Greece)

  • John Kapsomenakis

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, GR-10680 Athens, Greece)

  • Chrysoula Aratzioglou

    (Laboratory of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Agricultural University of Athens, 75 Iera Odos Street, GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

  • Christos Zerefos

    (Research Center for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, GR-10680 Athens, Greece
    Biomedical Research Foundation of the Academy of Athens, GR-11527 Athens, Greece
    Navarino Environmental Observatory (N.E.O.), GR-24001 Messinia, Greece)

  • Constantinos Kosmas

    (Laboratory of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Agricultural University of Athens, 75 Iera Odos Street, GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

The impact of simulated future climate change on land degradation was assessed in three representative study sites of Thessaly, Greece, one of the country’s most important agronomic zones. Two possible scenarios were used for estimation of future climatic conditions, which were based on greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Three time periods were selected: the reference past period 1981–2000 for comparison, and the future periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. Based on soil characteristics, past and future climate conditions, type of land uses, and land management prevailing in the study area, the Environmentally Sensitive to desertification Areas (ESAs) were assessed for each period using the MEDALUS-ESAI index. Soil losses derived by water and tillage erosion were also assessed for the future periods using existing empirical equations. Furthermore, primary soil salinization risk was assessed using an algorithm of individual indicators related to the natural environment or socio-economic characteristics. The obtained data by both climatic scenarios predicted increases in mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature. Concerning annual precipitation, reductions are generally expected for the three study sites. Desertification risk in the future is expected to increase in comparison to the reference period. Soil losses are estimated to be more important in sloping areas, due especially to tillage erosion in at least one study site. Primary salinization risk is expected to be higher in one study site and in soils under poorly drainage conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Orestis Kairis & Andreas Karamanos & Dimitrios Voloudakis & John Kapsomenakis & Chrysoula Aratzioglou & Christos Zerefos & Constantinos Kosmas, 2022. "Identifying Degraded and Sensitive to Desertification Agricultural Soils in Thessaly, Greece, under Simulated Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:3:p:395-:d:766742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
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    4. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    5. Orestis Kairis & Vassiliki Dimitriou & Chrysoula Aratzioglou & Dionisios Gasparatos & Nicholas Yassoglou & Constantinos Kosmas & Nikolaos Moustakas, 2020. "A Comparative Analysis of a Detailed and Semi-Detailed Soil Mapping for Sustainable Land Management Using Conventional and Currently Applied Methodologies in Greece," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-42, May.
    6. Sayed Fakhreddin Afzali & Ali Khanamani & Ehsan Kamali Maskooni & Ronny Berndtsson, 2021. "Quantitative Assessment of Environmental Sensitivity to Desertification Using the Modified MEDALUS Model in a Semiarid Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Andres Garcia & Angelos Alamanos, 2022. "Integrated Modelling Approaches for Sustainable Agri-Economic Growth and Environmental Improvement: Examples from Greece, Canada and Ireland," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Yan Xu & Zhaoyang Cai & Kaige Wang & Yuwei Zhang & Fengrong Zhang, 2022. "Evaluation for Appropriate Tillage of Sandy Land in Arid Sandy Area Based on Limitation Factor Exclusion Method," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-12, May.
    3. Christos Argyropoulos & Theodoros Petrakis & Lito-Aspasia Roditi & Angeliki Kavga, 2023. "Opportunities and Potential for Energy Utilization from Agricultural and Livestock Residues in the Region of Thessaly," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Yazhou Zhao & Shengyu Li & Dazhi Yang & Jiaqiang Lei & Jinglong Fan, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Force Analysis of Land Sensitivity to Desertification in Xinjiang Based on GEE," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Emma Bruno & Rosanna Salvia & Giovanni Quaranta & Pavel Cudlin & Gennaro Punzo & Luca Salvati, 2024. "Identifying On-Site and Off-Site Drivers of Land Degradation in Advanced Economies: A Spatial Approach for Italy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(9), pages 2429-2453, September.

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