IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v291y2014icp142-150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

Author

Listed:
  • Read, Jordan S.
  • Winslow, Luke A.
  • Hansen, Gretchen J.A.
  • Van Den Hoek, Jamon
  • Hanson, Paul C.
  • Bruce, Louise C.
  • Markfort, Corey D.

Abstract

Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake–climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979–2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some – but not all – ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Read, Jordan S. & Winslow, Luke A. & Hansen, Gretchen J.A. & Van Den Hoek, Jamon & Hanson, Paul C. & Bruce, Louise C. & Markfort, Corey D., 2014. "Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 142-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:291:y:2014:i:c:p:142-150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380014003664
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle Palmer & Norman Yan & Keith Somers, 2014. "Climate change drives coherent trends in physics and oxygen content in North American lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 285-299, May.
    2. Weinberger, Stefan & Vetter, Mark, 2012. "Using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM based on results of a regional climate model to estimate water temperature changes at Lake Ammersee," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 38-48.
    3. Catherine M. O'Reilly & Simone R. Alin & Pierre-Denis Plisnier & Andrew S. Cohen & Brent A. McKee, 2003. "Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa," Nature, Nature, vol. 424(6950), pages 766-768, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Soares, L.M.V. & Calijuri, M.C., 2021. "Sensitivity and identifiability analyses of parameters for water quality modeling of subtropical reservoirs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    2. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.
    3. Snortheim, Craig A. & Hanson, Paul C. & McMahon, Katherine D. & Read, Jordan S. & Carey, Cayelan C. & Dugan, Hilary A., 2017. "Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 39-53.
    4. Laura Melo Vieira Soares & Maria Calijuri & Talita Fernanda Silva & Evlyn Marcia Leão Novo, 2021. "Climate change enhances deepwater warming of subtropical reservoirs: evidence from hydrodynamic modelling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elaine Aparecida Rodrigues & Maurício Lamano Ferreira & Amanda Rodrigues de Carvalho & José Oscar William Vega Bustillos & Rodrigo Antonio Braga Moraes Victor & Marcelo Gomes Sodré & Delvonei Alves de, 2022. "Land, Water, and Climate Issues in Large and Megacities under the Lens of Nuclear Science: An Approach for Achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG11)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Konstantinos Stefanidis & George Varlas & Anastasios Papadopoulos & Elias Dimitriou, 2021. "Four Decades of Surface Temperature, Precipitation, and Wind Speed Trends over Lakes of Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & Marco Toffolon, 2018. "The fate of Lake Baikal: how climate change may alter deep ventilation in the largest lake on Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 181-194, October.
    4. Gideon Bulengela & Paul Onyango & Joan Brehm & Peter A. Staehr & Emmanuel Sweke, 2020. "“Bring fishermen at the center”: the value of local knowledge for understanding fisheries resources and climate-related changes in Lake Tanganyika," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5621-5649, August.
    5. Edison D. Macusi & Nitcel Aymie Albarido & Misael B. Clapano & Mudjekeewis D. Santos, 2022. "Vulnerability Assessment of Pacific Whiteleg Shrimp ( Penaeus vannamei ) Farms and Vendors in Davao, Philippines Using FishVool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Fetahi, Tadesse & Schagerl, Michael & Mengistou, Seyoum & Libralato, Simone, 2011. "Food web structure and trophic interactions of the tropical highland lake Hayq, Ethiopia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 804-813.
    7. Miguel-Angel Perea-Moreno & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro & Quetzalcoatl Hernandez-Escobedo & Alberto-Jesus Perea-Moreno, 2018. "Peanut Shell for Energy: Properties and Its Potential to Respect the Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
    8. Muhammad Azher Bhatti & Sosheel Solomon Godfrey & Ryan H. L. Ip & Chipo Kachiwala & Håvard Hovdhaugen & Liveness J. Banda & Moses Limuwa & Peter C. Wynn & Tormod Ådnøy & Lars Olav Eik, 2021. "Diversity of Sources of Income for Smallholder Farming Communities in Malawi: Importance for Improved Livelihood," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Hye Lee & Eun Kim & Seok Park & Jung Choi, 2012. "Effects of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in the Asian Monsoon Area," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 859-880, June.
    10. Temidayo Olowoyeye & Mariusz Ptak & Mariusz Sojka, 2023. "How Do Extreme Lake Water Temperatures in Poland Respond to Climate Change?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Darwall, William R.T. & Allison, Edward H. & Turner, George F. & Irvine, Kenneth, 2010. "Lake of flies, or lake of fish? A trophic model of Lake Malawi," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(4), pages 713-727.
    12. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    13. Makidul Islam Khan & Goutam Kumar Kundu & Mosammat Salma Akter & Bishawjit Mallick & Md. Monirul Islam, 2018. "Climatic Impacts and Responses of Migratory and Non-Migratory Fishers of the Padma River, Bangladesh," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Israt Jahan & Dewan Ahsan & Md Hasan Farque, 2017. "Fishers’ local knowledge on impact of climate change and anthropogenic interferences on Hilsa fishery in South Asia: evidence from Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 461-478, April.
    15. Lacey A. Mason & Catherine M. Riseng & Andrew D. Gronewold & Edward S. Rutherford & Jia Wang & Anne Clites & Sigrid D. P. Smith & Peter B. McIntyre, 2016. "Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 71-83, September.
    16. Laura Melo Vieira Soares & Maria Calijuri & Talita Fernanda Silva & Evlyn Marcia Leão Novo, 2021. "Climate change enhances deepwater warming of subtropical reservoirs: evidence from hydrodynamic modelling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Kahsay, Goytom Abraha & Hansen, Lars Gårn, 2016. "The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 54-64.
    18. de Bruin, Kelly & Ayuba, Victoria, 2020. "What does Paris mean for Africa? An Integrated Assessment analysis of the effects of the Paris Agreement on African economies," Papers WP690, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Snortheim, Craig A. & Hanson, Paul C. & McMahon, Katherine D. & Read, Jordan S. & Carey, Cayelan C. & Dugan, Hilary A., 2017. "Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 39-53.
    20. Liu, Junguo & Kattel, Giri & Arp, Hans Peter H. & Yang, Hong, 2015. "Towards threshold-based management of freshwater ecosystems in the context of climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 265-274.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:291:y:2014:i:c:p:142-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.