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A Daphnia population model that considers pesticide exposure and demographic stochasticity

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  • Erickson, Richard A.
  • Cox, Stephen B.
  • Oates, Jessica L.
  • Anderson, Todd A.
  • Salice, Christopher J.
  • Long, Kevin R.

Abstract

Population models have emerged as a powerful tool to better understand the ecological effects of toxicant exposure. Currently, most ecotoxicology population models are deterministic and fail to account for natural variability in biological processes and uncertainty in parameter estimates. We developed, parameterized, and analyzed a Daphnia population model with three different levels of demographic stochasticity to examine how a pesticide, pendimethalin, affects population dynamics. We conducted laboratory studies to generate the data used for the modeling process. The simplest model only included parameter uncertainty and variability. The second model included daily stochastic fecundities. The third model included stochastic fecundities and stochastic mortalities. Of the three models, the second model with stochastic fecundity best described our laboratory test system. All three models were used to test hypotheses about how pesticides would affect population dynamics. We found that pendimethalin either decreased the baseline juvenile survivorship rate or the carrying capacity. We could differentiate the two test effects with our system. Our findings demonstrate how stochastic population models may provide insight into pesticide exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Erickson, Richard A. & Cox, Stephen B. & Oates, Jessica L. & Anderson, Todd A. & Salice, Christopher J. & Long, Kevin R., 2014. "A Daphnia population model that considers pesticide exposure and demographic stochasticity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 37-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:275:y:2014:i:c:p:37-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Preuss, Thomas Günter & Hammers-Wirtz, Monika & Hommen, Udo & Rubach, Mascha Nadine & Ratte, Hans Toni, 2009. "Development and validation of an individual based Daphnia magna population model: The influence of crowding on population dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 310-329.
    2. Billoir, Elise & Péry, Alexandre R.R. & Charles, Sandrine, 2007. "Integrating the lethal and sublethal effects of toxic compounds into the population dynamics of Daphnia magna: A combination of the DEBtox and matrix population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 204-214.
    3. Brett A. Melbourne & Alan Hastings, 2008. "Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity," Nature, Nature, vol. 454(7200), pages 100-103, July.
    4. Ritz, Christian & Streibig, Jens C., 2005. "Bioassay Analysis Using R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 12(i05).
    5. John M Drake, 2005. "Density-Dependent Demographic Variation Determines Extinction Rate of Experimental Populations," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(7), pages 1-1, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Deng, Xiumei & Huang, Qihua, 2024. "A toxicant-taxis reaction–diffusion model for the interaction between two species and a toxicant in an aquatic ecosystem," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Palamara, Gian Marco & Dennis, Stuart R. & Haenggi, Corinne & Schuwirth, Nele & Reichert, Peter, 2022. "Investigating the effect of pesticides on Daphnia population dynamics by inferring structure and parameters of a stochastic model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).

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