IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v246y2012icp60-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does adding multi-scale climatic variability improve our capacity to explain niche transferability in invasive species?

Author

Listed:
  • Fernández, Miguel
  • Hamilton, Healy
  • Alvarez, Otto
  • Guo, Qinghua

Abstract

Our understanding of how species will respond to global change is still limited. Reasons hindering our ability to forecast species range shifts and expansions are the mismatch between realized climate niches in species’ native and invasive ranges, and the lack of available climatic datasets offering multiple scales of climatic variability (e.g., monthly and inter-annual climatic variability). Here we present a multi-taxon analysis of invasive species niche transferability that considers multi-scale climatic variability using ten noxious terrestrial invasive species. We compare native versus invasive ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling (SDM) algorithm Maxent, and the comparative index Hellinger's I with three possible climatic layer configurations representing natural climatic variability: (1) inter-annual, (2) monthly and (3) a combination of inter-annual and monthly climatic variability. We assess model performance using the area under the receiver characteristic curve (AUC). Results show that combined scales of climatic variability improved performance of the models for 60% of the species in the native range and 70% of the species in the invaded range. Contrasting native and invaded range SDM performance showed that the same climate layer configuration produced the best models only in 70% of the species. For 90% of the species the most similar niches were obtained based on monthly climatic variability. The divergence in our findings between higher performing SDMs and the most transferable SDMs, suggest some species range limits might be constrained by one scale of climatic variability in the native range and a different one in the invaded range. Where sufficient occurrence data in the invaded range is available, the inclusion of an additional scale of climatic variability can enhance ecological understanding of the invasion events. However, when invaded range occurrence data is not available, the most conservative approach would use only monthly climatic variability. If these finding are extrapolated to niche transferability in time, we suggest that historical collection records should be analyzed to understand species’ response to multiple scales of climate variability in the past, thereby informing the selection of appropriate scales of climate variability in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández, Miguel & Hamilton, Healy & Alvarez, Otto & Guo, Qinghua, 2012. "Does adding multi-scale climatic variability improve our capacity to explain niche transferability in invasive species?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 246(C), pages 60-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:246:y:2012:i:c:p:60-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.07.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380012003742
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.07.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barve, Narayani & Barve, Vijay & Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Maher, Sean P. & Peterson, A. Townsend & Soberón, Jorge & Villalobos, Fabricio, 2011. "The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1810-1819.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolke Tobón-Niedfeldt & Alicia Mastretta-Yanes & Tania Urquiza-Haas & Bárbara Goettsch & Angela P. Cuervo-Robayo & Esmeralda Urquiza-Haas & M. Andrea Orjuela-R & Francisca Acevedo Gasman & Oswaldo Oli, 2022. "Incorporating evolutionary and threat processes into crop wild relatives conservation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia M. & Flores-Villela, Oscar A. & Bezaury-Creel, Juan E., 2016. "Using one vs. many, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of species distribution models with focus on conservation area networks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 372-382.
    3. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    4. Diederik Strubbe & Laura Jiménez & A. Márcia Barbosa & Amy J. S. Davis & Luc Lens & Carsten Rahbek, 2023. "Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Jiménez, Laura & Soberón, Jorge & Christen, J. Andrés & Soto, Desireé, 2019. "On the problem of modeling a fundamental niche from occurrence data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 74-83.
    6. Herkt, K. Matthias B. & Barnikel, Günter & Skidmore, Andrew K. & Fahr, Jakob, 2016. "A high-resolution model of bat diversity and endemism for continental Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 9-28.
    7. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A Townsend Peterson & Pierre Mokondoko & Octavio Rojas-Soto & Enrique Martínez-Meyer, 2014. "The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, June.
    8. Marianna V. P. Simões & Hanieh Saeedi & Marlon E. Cobos & Angelika Brandt, 2021. "Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Arpit Deomurari & Ajay Sharma & Dipankar Ghose & Randeep Singh, 2023. "Potential Range Map Dataset of Indian Birds," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-11, September.
    10. Cesar A Marchioro, 2016. "Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Ram C Poudel & Michael Möller & Lian-Ming Gao & Antje Ahrends & Sushim R Baral & Jie Liu & Philip Thomas & De-Zhu Li, 2012. "Using Morphological, Molecular and Climatic Data to Delimitate Yews along the Hindu Kush-Himalaya and Adjacent Regions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.
    12. Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez & Luísa G Carvalheiro & Chiara Polce & E Emiel van Loon & Niels Raes & Menno Reemer & Jacobus C Biesmeijer, 2013. "Fit-for-Purpose: Species Distribution Model Performance Depends on Evaluation Criteria – Dutch Hoverflies as a Case Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
    13. Tourinho, Luara & Sinervo, Barry & Caetano, Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira & Vale, Mariana M., 2021. "A less data demanding ecophysiological niche modeling approach for mammals with comparison to conventional correlative niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
    14. Rotllan-Puig, Xavier & Traveset, Anna, 2021. "Determining the minimal background area for species distribution models: MinBAR package," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 439(C).
    15. Watling, James I. & Brandt, Laura A. & Bucklin, David N. & Fujisaki, Ikuko & Mazzotti, Frank J. & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Speroterra, Carolina, 2015. "Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 48-59.
    16. Jarnevich, Catherine S. & Talbert, Marian & Morisette, Jeffery & Aldridge, Cameron & Brown, Cynthia S. & Kumar, Sunil & Manier, Daniel & Talbert, Colin & Holcombe, Tracy, 2017. "Minimizing effects of methodological decisions on interpretation and prediction in species distribution studies: An example with background selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 48-56.
    17. David A. Prieto-Torres & Luis A. Sánchez-González & Marco F. Ortiz-Ramírez & Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores & Erick A. García-Trejo & Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza, 2021. "Climate warming affects spatio-temporal biodiversity patterns of a highly vulnerable Neotropical avifauna," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.
    18. Whitford, Anna M. & Shipley, Benjamin R. & McGuire, Jenny L., 2024. "The influence of the number and distribution of background points in presence-background species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 488(C).
    19. Martin Godefroid & Astrid Cruaud & Jean-Pierre Rossi & Jean-Yves Rasplus, 2015. "Assessing the Risk of Invasion by Tephritid Fruit Flies: Intraspecific Divergence Matters," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Regina Gabriela Medina & Andrés Lira-Noriega & Ezequiel Aráoz & María Laura Ponssa, 2020. "Potential effects of climate change on a Neotropical frog genus: changes in the spatial diversity patterns of Leptodactylus (Anura, Leptodactylidae) and implications for their conservation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 535-553, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:246:y:2012:i:c:p:60-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.