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The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model

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  • Zhang, Zhibin

Abstract

Since it first appeared in China's Guangdong Province, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has caused serious damages to many parts of the world, especially Asia. Little is known about its epidemiology. We developed a modified discrete SIR model including susceptible individuals, non-hospitalized SARS persons; hospitalized patients, cured hospital patients, and those who have died due to SARS infection. Here, we demonstrate the effective reproduction number is determined by infection rates and infectious period of hospitalized and non-hospitalized SARS patients. Both infection rate and the effective reproductive number of the SARS virus are significantly negatively correlated with the total number of cumulative cases, indicating that the control measures implemented in China are effective, and the outbreak pattern of accumulative SARS cases in China is a logistic growth curve. We estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of SARS virus is 2.87 in mainland of China, very close to the estimations in Singapore and Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zhibin, 2007. "The outbreak pattern of SARS cases in China as revealed by a mathematical model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 420-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:204:y:2007:i:3:p:420-426
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.01.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Méndez, Vicenç & Fort, Joaquim, 2000. "Dynamical evolution of discrete epidemic models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 309-317.
    2. N. G. Becker & T. Britton, 1999. "Statistical studies of infectious disease incidence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 287-307, April.
    3. Moghadas, S.M. & Gumel, A.B., 2002. "Global stability of a two-stage epidemic model with generalized non-linear incidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 107-118.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > SARS

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    Cited by:

    1. Schimit, P.H.T. & Monteiro, L.H.A., 2012. "On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 156-160.
    2. Mattia Mazzoli & Riccardo Gallotti & Filippo Privitera & Pere Colet & José J. Ramasco, 2023. "Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Xu Zhao & Hengxing Xiang & Feifei Zhao, 2023. "Measurement and Spatial Differentiation of Farmers’ Livelihood Resilience Under the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Rural China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 239-267, April.
    4. Schimit, P.H.T. & Monteiro, L.H.A., 2009. "On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(7), pages 1034-1042.
    5. Ronald N. Kostoff & Stephen A. Morse, 2011. "Structure and infrastructure of infectious agent research literature: SARS," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 86(1), pages 195-209, January.
    6. Chen Renbao & Wang Ping, 2008. "Modeling the Cumulative Cases from SARS," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17, March.

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