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Fine-scale family structure shapes influenza transmission risk in households: Insights from primary schools in Matsumoto city, 2014/15

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  • Akira Endo
  • Mitsuo Uchida
  • Adam J Kucharski
  • Sebastian Funk

Abstract

Households are important settings for the transmission of seasonal influenza. Previous studies found that the per-person risk of within-household transmission decreases with household size. However, more detailed heterogeneities driven by household composition and contact patterns have not been studied. We employed a mathematical model that accounts for infections both from outside and within the household. The model was applied to citywide primary school seasonal influenza surveillance and household surveys from 10,486 students during the 2014/15 season in Matsumoto city, Japan. We compared a range of models to estimate the structure of household transmission and found that familial relationship and household composition strongly influenced the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in households. Children had a substantially high risk of infection from outside the household (up to 20%) compared with adults (1–3%). Intense transmission was observed within-generation (between children/parents/grandparents) and also between mother and child, with transmission risks typically ranging from 5–20% depending on the transmission route and household composition. Children were identified as the largest source of secondary transmission, with family structure influencing infection risk.Author summary: We characterised detailed heterogeneity in household transmission patterns of influenza by applying a mathematical model to citywide primary school influenza survey data from 10,486 students in Matsumoto city, Japan, one of the largest-scale household surveys on seasonal influenza. Children were identified as the largest source of secondary transmission, with family structure influencing infection risk. This suggests that vaccinating children would have stronger secondary effects on transmission than would be assumed without taking into account transmission patterns within the household.

Suggested Citation

  • Akira Endo & Mitsuo Uchida & Adam J Kucharski & Sebastian Funk, 2019. "Fine-scale family structure shapes influenza transmission risk in households: Insights from primary schools in Matsumoto city, 2014/15," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1007589
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dao Nguyen Vinh & Nguyen Thi Duy Nhat & Erwin Bruin & Nguyen Ha Thao Vy & Tran Thi Nhu Thao & Huynh Thi Phuong & Pham Hong Anh & Stacy Todd & Tran Minh Quan & Nguyen Thi Le Thanh & Nguyen Thi Nam Lien, 2021. "Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

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