IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y2021i3p228-d486325.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian Model of COVID-19 Cases Based on the Gompertz Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel Berihuete

    (Dpto. Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Cádiz, 11510 Puerto Real, Spain
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Marta Sánchez-Sánchez

    (IBiDat UC3M-Santander Big Data Institute, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 28903 Getafe, Madrid, Spain
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Alfonso Suárez-Llorens

    (Dpto. Estadística e Investigación Operativa, Universidad de Cádiz, 11510 Puerto Real, Spain
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for finding mathematical models to forecast the evolution of the contagious disease and evaluate the success of particular policies in reducing infections. In this work, we perform Bayesian inference for a non-homogeneous Poisson process with an intensity function based on the Gompertz curve. We discuss the prior distribution of the parameter and we generate samples from the posterior distribution by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Finally, we illustrate our method analyzing real data associated with COVID-19 in a specific region located at the south of Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel Berihuete & Marta Sánchez-Sánchez & Alfonso Suárez-Llorens, 2021. "A Bayesian Model of COVID-19 Cases Based on the Gompertz Curve," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:3:p:228-:d:486325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/3/228/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/3/228/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carpenter, Bob & Gelman, Andrew & Hoffman, Matthew D. & Lee, Daniel & Goodrich, Ben & Betancourt, Michael & Brubaker, Marcus & Guo, Jiqiang & Li, Peter & Riddell, Allen, 2017. "Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i01).
    2. N. G. Becker & T. Britton, 1999. "Statistical studies of infectious disease incidence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 287-307, April.
    3. Se Yoon Lee & Bowen Lei & Bani Mallick, 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Sánchez-Sánchez, M. & Sordo, M.A. & Suárez-Llorens, A. & Gómez-Déniz, E., 2019. "Deriving Robust Bayesian Premiums Under Bands Of Prior Distributions With Applications," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 147-168, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Estrada, Ernesto & Bartesaghi, Paolo, 2022. "From networked SIS model to the Gompertz function," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 419(C).
    2. Yu-You Liou & Hung-Hao Chang & David R. Just, 2024. "How do consumers respond to COVID-19? Application of Bayesian approach on credit card transaction data," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5737-5754, December.
    3. Julia Calatayud & Marc Jornet & Jorge Mateu, 2023. "A phenomenological model for COVID‐19 data taking into account neighboring‐provinces effect and random noise," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 77(2), pages 146-155, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joe Meagher & Nial Friel, 2022. "Assessing epidemic curves for evidence of superspreading," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 2179-2202, October.
    2. Francis,David C. & Kubinec ,Robert, 2022. "Beyond Political Connections : A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-levelPolitical Influence in 41 Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10119, The World Bank.
    3. Yongping Bao & Ludwig Danwitz & Fabian Dvorak & Sebastian Fehrler & Lars Hornuf & Hsuan Yu Lin & Bettina von Helversen, 2022. "Similarity and Consistency in Algorithm-Guided Exploration," CESifo Working Paper Series 10188, CESifo.
    4. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang & Shuanping Dai, 2020. "Growth, development, and structural change at the firm-level: The example of the PR China," Papers 2012.14503, arXiv.org.
    5. Xin Xu & Yang Lu & Yupeng Zhou & Zhiguo Fu & Yanjie Fu & Minghao Yin, 2021. "An Information-Explainable Random Walk Based Unsupervised Network Representation Learning Framework on Node Classification Tasks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Xiaoyue Xi & Simon E. F. Spencer & Matthew Hall & M. Kate Grabowski & Joseph Kagaayi & Oliver Ratmann & Rakai Health Sciences Program and PANGEA‐HIV, 2022. "Inferring the sources of HIV infection in Africa from deep‐sequence data with semi‐parametric Bayesian Poisson flow models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(3), pages 517-540, June.
    7. Luo, Nanyu & Ji, Feng & Han, Yuting & He, Jinbo & Zhang, Xiaoya, 2024. "Fitting item response theory models using deep learning computational frameworks," OSF Preprints tjxab, Center for Open Science.
    8. Joseph B. Bak-Coleman & Ian Kennedy & Morgan Wack & Andrew Beers & Joseph S. Schafer & Emma S. Spiro & Kate Starbird & Jevin D. West, 2022. "Combining interventions to reduce the spread of viral misinformation," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1372-1380, October.
    9. David M. Phillippo & Sofia Dias & A. E. Ades & Mark Belger & Alan Brnabic & Alexander Schacht & Daniel Saure & Zbigniew Kadziola & Nicky J. Welton, 2020. "Multilevel network meta‐regression for population‐adjusted treatment comparisons," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1189-1210, June.
    10. Alina Ferecatu & Arnaud Bruyn & Prithwiraj Mukherjee, 2024. "Silently killing your panelists one email at a time: The true cost of email solicitations," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1216-1239, July.
    11. Burbano, Vanessa & Padilla, Nicolas & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Gender Differences in Preferences for Meaning at Work," IZA Discussion Papers 13053, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Robert Kubinec & Haillie Na‐Kyung Lee & Andrey Tomashevskiy, 2021. "Politically connected companies are less likely to shutdown due to COVID‐19 restrictions," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2155-2169, September.
    13. Barrington-Leigh, C.P., 2024. "The econometrics of happiness: Are we underestimating the returns to education and income?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    14. Salvatore Nunnari & Massimiliano Pozzi, 2022. "Meta-Analysis of Inequality Aversion Estimates," CESifo Working Paper Series 9851, CESifo.
    15. Andreas Kryger Jensen & Claus Thorn Ekstrøm, 2021. "Quantifying the trendiness of trends," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 98-121, January.
    16. Lauderdale, Benjamin E. & Bailey, Delia & Blumenau, Jack & Rivers, Douglas, 2020. "Model-based pre-election polling for national and sub-national outcomes in the US and UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 399-413.
    17. Tamara Broderick & Ryan Giordano & Rachael Meager, 2020. "An Automatic Finite-Sample Robustness Metric: When Can Dropping a Little Data Make a Big Difference?," Papers 2011.14999, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    18. Kenneth F. Kellner & Arielle W. Parsons & Roland Kays & Joshua J. Millspaugh & Christopher T. Rota, 2022. "A Two-Species Occupancy Model with a Continuous-Time Detection Process Reveals Spatial and Temporal Interactions," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 321-338, June.
    19. Owen G. Ward & Jing Wu & Tian Zheng & Anna L. Smith & James P. Curley, 2022. "Network Hawkes process models for exploring latent hierarchy in social animal interactions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1402-1426, November.
    20. Donegan, Connor & Chun, Yongwan & Hughes, Amy E., 2020. "Bayesian estimation of spatial filters with Moran's eigenvectors and hierarchical shrinkage priors," OSF Preprints fah3z_v1, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:3:p:228-:d:486325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.