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The personal saving rate: Data revisions and forecasts

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  • Croushore, Dean
  • Del Monaco Santos, Pedro

Abstract

Revisions to the U.S. personal saving rate are very large and may be predictable. We decompose the revisions of the personal saving rate into those caused by revisions to income and those caused by revisions to household outlays. We use our findings to explore the forecastability of future revisions of the personal saving rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Croushore, Dean & Del Monaco Santos, Pedro, 2022. "The personal saving rate: Data revisions and forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:219:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522002956
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2010. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 71-127.
    2. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    3. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2005. "Benchmark revisions and the U.S. personal saving rate," Working Papers 05-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2007. "Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
    6. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    7. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2008. "The mismeasured personal saving rate is still useful: using real-time data to improve forecasting," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 9-20.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data revisions; Saving; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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