IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v219y2022ics0165176522002956.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The personal saving rate: Data revisions and forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Croushore, Dean
  • Del Monaco Santos, Pedro

Abstract

Revisions to the U.S. personal saving rate are very large and may be predictable. We decompose the revisions of the personal saving rate into those caused by revisions to income and those caused by revisions to household outlays. We use our findings to explore the forecastability of future revisions of the personal saving rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Croushore, Dean & Del Monaco Santos, Pedro, 2022. "The personal saving rate: Data revisions and forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:219:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522002956
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110806
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176522002956
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110806?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2010. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 71-127.
    2. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2007. "Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
    4. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
    5. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    6. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2005. "Benchmark revisions and the U.S. personal saving rate," Working Papers 05-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2008. "The mismeasured personal saving rate is still useful: using real-time data to improve forecasting," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 9-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Diebold, Francis X. & Nalewaik, Jeremy & Schorfheide, Frank & Song, Dongho, 2016. "Improving GDP measurement: A measurement-error perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 384-397.
    2. Hecq, Alain & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Stamatogiannis, Michalis P., 2019. "Testing for news and noise in non-stationary time series subject to multiple historical revisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 396-407.
    3. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2009. "The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(2), pages 161-181.
    4. Dean Croushore, 2009. "Commentary on Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 371-382.
    5. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, 2010. "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," Economic Research Papers 270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    8. Olivia S. Mitchell & James F. Moore, "undated". "Retirement Wealth Accumulation and Decumulation: New Developments and Outstanding Opportunities," Pension Research Council Working Papers 97-8, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Saito, Makoto, 2022. "On expenditure/income discrepancies in national accounts in the presence of two price units," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. David de Antonio Liedo, 2014. "Nowcasting Belgium," Working Paper Research 256, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
    12. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2004. "Analyzing an Aging Population--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach: Technical Paper 2004-03," Working Papers 15191, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 2006. "The Age–Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth — An Update to 2011Q2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 385-411.
    15. Jappelli, Tullio, 2001. "Comment on the International Savings Comparison Project," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 173-184, June.
    16. Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Sefton, James & Weale, Martin, 2001. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 93-128, January.
    17. Martín Almuzara & Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2024. "GDP Solera: The Ideal Vintage Mix," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 984-997, July.
    18. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    19. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    20. Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/17, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data revisions; Saving; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:219:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522002956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.