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Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis

Author

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  • Leonard I. Nakamura
  • Tom Stark

Abstract

Is it possible to forecast using poorly measured data? According to the permanent income hypothesis, a low personal saving rate should predict rising future income (Campbell, 1987). However, the U.S. personal saving rate is initially poorly measured and has been repeatedly revised upward in benchmark revisions. The authors use both conventional and real-time estimates of the personal saving rate in vector autoregressions to forecast real disposable income; using the level of the personal saving rate in real time would have almost invariably made forecasts worse, but first differences of the personal saving rate are predictive. They also test the lay hypothesis that a low personal saving rate has implications for consumption growth and find no evidence of forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2007. "Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:07-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2016. "Economic Forecasting," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10740.
    2. Michael J. Boskin, 2000. "Economic Measurement: Progress and Challenges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 247-252, May.
    3. Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 961-982, Elsevier.
    4. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    5. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003. "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
    6. Rosanne Cole, 1969. "Data Errors and Forecasting Accuracy," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 47-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
    8. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Croushore, Dean & Del Monaco Santos, Pedro, 2022. "The personal saving rate: Data revisions and forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Tom Stark, 2010. "Realistic evaluation of real-time forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May.

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