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Valuation of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war

Author

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  • Bougias, Alexandros
  • Episcopos, Athanasios
  • Leledakis, George N.

Abstract

We infer the asset value dynamics of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war via the structural model of Merton (1974). Using high-frequency stock price data, we find that the war led to lower corporate security prices and higher asset volatility, eventually shifting asset values closer to the default region. On average, the balance sheet of European firms is expected to shrink by 2.05% and their 1-year default probability to increase from 0.32% to 2.12%. Regression analysis on asset and equity returns as well as default probability changes suggests that these effects are stronger for firms with large revenue exposure to Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "Valuation of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:218:y:2022:i:c:s016517652200266x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110750
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    Cited by:

    1. U, Tony Sio-Chong & Lin, Yongjia & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on volatility spillovers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Are short stocks susceptible to geopolitical shocks? Time-Frequency evidence from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2024. "Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    5. Marta Anita Karaś & Michał Boda, 2024. "Stabilność i wyniki finansowe banków w krajach Europy graniczących z konfliktem militarnym w Ukrainie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 64-111.
    6. Liang, Chao & Wang, Lu & Duong, Duy, 2024. "More attention and better volatility forecast accuracy: How does war attention affect stock volatility predictability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Alcindo Neckel & M. Santosh & Brian William Bodah & Laércio Stolfo Maculan & Diana Pinto & Cleiton Korcelski & Paloma Carollo Toscan & Laura Pasa Cambrussi & Isadora Cezar Caino & Leila Dal Moro & Dir, 2022. "Using the Sentinel-3B Satellite in Geospatial Analysis of Suspended Aerosols in the Kiev, Ukraine Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Zhang, Dongyang & Wang, Cao & Wang, Yizhi, 2024. "Unveiling the critical nexus: Volatility of crude oil future prices and trade partner’s cash holding behavior in the face of the Russia–Ukraine conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. MD ASIF UL ALAM & Erik Devos & Zifeng Feng, 2023. "Firm reaction to geopolitical crises: Evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine conflict," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 163-182, December.
    10. Marjan Petreski, 2023. "The impact of the crisis induced by the conflict in Ukraine on firms in North Macedonia: Evidence from a micro-survey," Finance Think Policy Studies 2023-06/46, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    11. Petreski Marjan, 2024. "The Impact of the Crisis Induced by the Conflict in Ukraine on Firms: Evidence from North Macedonia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 123-144.
    12. Countryman, Amanda M. & Litvinov, Valentyn & Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan & Bogonos, Mariia & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2024. "Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine," Commissioned Papers 344185, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    13. Piserà, Stefano & Chiaramonte, Laura & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Pichler, Flavio, 2024. "Firm systematic risk after the Russia–Ukraine invasion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European firms; Merton model; Russia–Ukraine war; Asset returns; Default risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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