IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v147y2024ics0261560624001244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Firms Entangled in Geopolitical Conflicts: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War

Author

Listed:
  • Tosun, Onur Kemal
  • Eshraghi, Arman
  • Vigne, Samuel A.

Abstract

We examine the reactions of US-based multinationals and subsequent financial market reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The multinationals’ firm-level decisions range from clean exits from the Russian market, all the way to ‘digging in’ as if the war never happened. Findings show that, in the short-term, markets favour ‘middle ground’ decisions which balance shareholder interests with regulatory and ethical concerns. This is manifest through those firms taking extreme decisions, on either end of the spectrum, experiencing more negative returns. In the longer term, however, investor ethical concerns and other considerations dominate such that firms announcing clean breaks incur lower losses compared to their peers. In other words, sitting on the fence and playing both sides does not pay off for long. We also show interesting differences in investor reactions between two major non-US markets: China − a Russia-leaning country − vs India − a neutral country. While Indian investors behave largely similar to US investors, Chinese investors do not significantly punish firms that stay put in Russia. We re-examine the situation one year into the war and show that markets reward a Russia-opposing corporate position in the longer term.

Suggested Citation

  • Tosun, Onur Kemal & Eshraghi, Arman & Vigne, Samuel A., 2024. "Firms Entangled in Geopolitical Conflicts: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:147:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001244
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103137?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Daitian Li & Tony W Tong & Yangao Xiao & Feida Zhang, 2022. "Terrorism-induced uncertainty and firm R&D investment: A real options view," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(2), pages 255-267, March.
    3. Verbeke, Alain & Kano, Liena, 2016. "An internalization theory perspective on the global and regional strategies of multinational enterprises," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 83-92.
    4. Michael A. Sartor & Paul W. Beamish, 2020. "Integration-oriented strategies, host market corruption and the likelihood of foreign subsidiary exit from emerging markets," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 51(3), pages 414-431, April.
    5. Glambosky, Mina & Peterburgsky, Stanley, 2022. "Corporate activism during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Tosun, Onur Kemal & Eshraghi, Arman, 2022. "Corporate decisions in times of war: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    7. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
    8. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    9. Lee, Hyoungjin & Chung, Chris Changwha, 2022. "Go small or go home: Operational exposure to violent conflicts and foreign subsidiary exit," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(6).
    10. Frey, Bruno S. & Waldenstr M, Daniel, 2004. "Markets work in war: World War II reflected in the Zurich and Stockholm bond markets," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 51-67, April.
    11. Omrane Guedhami & April Knill & William L. Megginson & Lemma W. Senbet, 2022. "The dark side of globalization: Evidence from the impact of COVID-19 on multinational companies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(8), pages 1603-1640, October.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
    14. Tosun, Onur Kemal, 2021. "Cyber-attacks and stock market activity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
    16. Tailan Chi & Jing Li & Lenos G Trigeorgis & Andrianos E Tsekrekos, 2019. "Correction to: Real options theory in international business," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(4), pages 554-554, June.
    17. Alain Verbeke & Wenlong Yuan, 2021. "A Few Implications of the COVID‐19 Pandemic for International Business Strategy Research," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 597-601, March.
    18. Mohamad, Azhar, 2022. "Safe flight to which haven when Russia invades Ukraine? A 48-hour story," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Otchere, Isaac & Senbet, Lemma W. & Zhu, Pengcheng, 2020. "Does political connection distort competition and encourage corporate risk taking? International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 21-42.
    20. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    21. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    22. Tailan Chi & Jing Li & Lenos G Trigeorgis & Andrianos E Tsekrekos, 2019. "Real options theory in international business," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(4), pages 525-553, June.
    23. Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Wang, Tianyang, 2023. "Investigating the dynamics of crisis transmission channels: A comparative analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    24. Hudson, Robert & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 166-177.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bijoy Chandra Das & Fakhrul Hasan & Soma Rani Sutradhar & Sujana Shafique, 2023. "Ukraine–Russia Conflict and Stock Markets Reactions in Europe," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(3), pages 395-407, September.
    2. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Are short stocks susceptible to geopolitical shocks? Time-Frequency evidence from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Kumari, Vineeta & Hassan, Majdi & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2024. "Are high-income and innovative nations resilient to the Russia-Ukraine war?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1268-1287.
    5. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Yousaf, Imran & Patel, Ritesh & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Kakhkharov, Jakhongir & Onur, Ilke & Yalcin, Erkan & Zhu, Rong, 2024. "Global evidence on the Russia–Ukraine conflict and energy stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 413-435.
    8. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
    9. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Farrukh Nawaz & Mrestyal Khan & Umar Kayani & Indry Aristianto Pradipta & Aulia Luqman Aziz, 2024. "Impact of Volatility Spillovers upon Electric Utilities during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 597-604, November.
    11. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca & Scardozzi, Giulia & Stentella Lopes, Francesco Saverio, 2024. "ESG resilience in conflictual times," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Martins, António Miguel & Correia, Pedro & Gouveia, Ricardo, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict: The effect on European banks’ stock market returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Assaf, Rima & Rai, Varun Kumar, 2023. "Did the Indian stock market sail the Russia-Ukraine storm safely?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    15. Tosun, Onur Kemal & Eshraghi, Arman, 2022. "Corporate decisions in times of war: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    16. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Richard Barichello, 2023. "The shock of war: do trade relations impact the reaction of stock markets to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 14-27.
    17. Hassan, M Kabir & Boubaker, Sabri & Kumari, Vineeta & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2022. "Border disputes and heterogeneous sectoral returns: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "Valuation of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    19. Hanedar, Avni Önder & Hanedar, Elmas Yaldız, 2017. "Ottoman stock returns during the Turco-Italian and Balkan Wars of 1910-1914," eabh Papers 17-02, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
    20. MD ASIF UL ALAM & Erik Devos & Zifeng Feng, 2023. "Firm reaction to geopolitical crises: Evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine conflict," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 163-182, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    War; Market Reaction; Sanctions; Corporate Finance; Multinational Enterprises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:147:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.