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On the indeterminacy of the representation of beliefs by probabilities

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  • Karni, Edi

Abstract

This paper examines the indeterminacy of the representations of beliefs by subjective probabilities in non-expected utility theories of decision making under uncertainty. These theories include the rank-dependent utility models, probabilistically sophisticated choice and probabilistic sophistication based on event exchangeability.

Suggested Citation

  • Karni, Edi, 2020. "On the indeterminacy of the representation of beliefs by probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:196:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520303244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109535
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October.
    2. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
    3. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    4. Grant, Simon, 1995. "Subjective Probability without Monotonicity: Or How Machina's Mom May Also Be Probabilistically Sophisticated," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 159-189, January.
    5. Chew, Soo Hong & Wang, Wenqian, 2020. "On the robustness of indeterminacy in subjective probability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. W. Henry Chiu, 1996. "Risk Aversion with State-Dependent Preferences in the Rank-Dependent Expected Utility Theory," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 21(2), pages 159-177, December.
    7. Edi Karni & David Schmeidler, 2016. "An expected utility theory for state-dependent preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 81(4), pages 467-478, November.
    8. Chew Soo Hong & Jacob S. Sagi, 2006. "Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 771-786, May.
    9. Jean Baccelli, 2019. "The Problem of State-Dependent Utility: A Reappraisal," Post-Print hal-02172207, HAL.
    10. Edi Karni, 2011. "Subjective Probabilities on a State Space," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 172-185, November.
    11. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-780, July.
    12. Hong, Chew Soo & Wakker, Peter, 1996. "The Comonotonic Sure-Thing Principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 5-27, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective probabilities; Prior beliefs; Rank-dependent utility; Probabilistic sophistication; Event exchangeability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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