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Almost-Objective Uncertainty

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  • Machina, Mark J

Abstract

Every subjective state space with sufficient (e.g., Euclidean) structure contains almost-objective events that approximate, and in the limit attain, the standard properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether they are expected utility/non-expected utility, state-independent/state-dependent, or probabilistically sophisticated/non-probabilistically sophisticated. These properties include well-defined and unanimously agreed-upon revealed likelihoods that are independent of the realization of other subjective events, probabilistic sophistication over almost-objective acts, and linearity of state-independent or state-dependent expected utility preferences over almost-objective acts and almost-objective mixtures of subjective acts. Many real-world randomization devices are based on events of this form.

Suggested Citation

  • Machina, Mark J, 2001. "Almost-Objective Uncertainty," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt3ps1k85f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt3ps1k85f
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Attanasi & Aldo Montesano, 2010. "The Price for Information about Probabilities and its Relation with Capacities," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 031, University of Siena.
    2. ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 2003-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
      • ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX, Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 04-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    3. Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Luca Anderlini & Leonardo Felli, 2006. "Undescribable Events," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 849-868.
    4. Nicky Nicholls & Aylit Romm & Alexander Zimper, 2015. "The impact of statistical learning on violations of the sure-thing principle," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 97-115, April.
    5. Giuseppe Attanasi & Aldo Montesano, 2012. "The price for information about probabilities and its relation with risk and ambiguity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 125-160, July.
    6. Robert Nau, 2011. "Risk, ambiguity, and state-preference theory," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 437-467, October.
    7. Fujii, Tomoki, 2017. "Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application to the Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 69-84.
    8. Robert Nau, 2001. "De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 89-124, December.
    9. Grant, Simon & Polak, Ben, 2006. "Bayesian beliefs with stochastic monotonicity: An extension of Machina and Schmeidler," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 264-282, September.
    10. Noemi Pace & Giuseppe Attanasi & Christian Gollier & Aldo Montesano, 2012. "Eliciting ambiguity aversion in unknown and in compound lotteries: A KMM experimental approach," Working Papers 2012_23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
    12. Soo Hong Chew & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang & Songfa Zhong, 2016. "Education and anomalies in decision making: Experimental evidence from Chinese adult twins," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 163-200, December.
    13. John Dickhaut & Radhika Lunawat & Kira Pronin & Jack Stecher, 2011. "Decision making and trade without probabilities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 275-288, October.
    14. Soo Chew & Richard Ebstein & Songfa Zhong, 2012. "Ambiguity aversion and familiarity bias: Evidence from behavioral and gene association studies," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn Harrison & Arne Hole & E. Rutström, 2012. "Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 161-184, July.
    16. Zvi Safra & Uzi Segal, 2005. "Are Universal Preferences Possible? Calibration Results for Non-Expected Utility Theories," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 633, Boston College Department of Economics.
    17. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "The price for instrumentally valuable information," THEMA Working Papers 2018-10, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    18. Nabil Al-Najjar & Luca Anderlini & Leonardo Felli, 2003. "Undescribable Contingencies," Discussion Papers 1370, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    19. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
    20. Border, Kim C. & Ghirardato, Paolo & Segal, Uzi, 2005. "Objective subjective probabilities," Working Papers 1228, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    21. Milos Borozan & Loreta Cannito & Barbara Luppi, 2022. "A tale of two ambiguities: A conceptual overview of findings from economics and psychology," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 6(S1), pages 11-21, July.
    22. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Decision-Making in the Context of Imprecise Probabilistic Beliefs," Economics Working Papers 0034, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
    23. Giuseppe Attanasi & Christian Gollier & Aldo Montesano & Noemi Pace, 2014. "Eliciting ambiguity aversion in unknown and in compound lotteries: a smooth ambiguity model experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 485-530, December.

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