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On the robustness of indeterminacy in subjective probability

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  • Chew, Soo Hong
  • Wang, Wenqian

Abstract

We examine the robustness of indeterminacy in subjective probability identified in Savage’s (1954) axiomatization of subjective expected utility theory. We show that this indeterminacy applies to betweenness conforming preferences, but does not extend to preferences without the betweenness property.

Suggested Citation

  • Chew, Soo Hong & Wang, Wenqian, 2020. "On the robustness of indeterminacy in subjective probability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:188:y:2020:i:c:s016517652030001x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.108939
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Machina, Mark J, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March.
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    5. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
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    9. Chew Soo Hong & Jacob S. Sagi, 2006. "Event Exchangeability: Probabilistic Sophistication Without Continuity or Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 771-786, May.
    10. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
    11. Grant, Simon, 1995. "Subjective Probability without Monotonicity: Or How Machina's Mom May Also Be Probabilistically Sophisticated," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 159-189, January.
    12. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-780, July.
    13. Dekel, Eddie, 1986. "An axiomatic characterization of preferences under uncertainty: Weakening the independence axiom," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 304-318, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karni, Edi, 2020. "On the indeterminacy of the representation of beliefs by probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Elias Tsakas, 2023. "Belief identification by proxy," Papers 2311.13394, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective probability; State dependence; Non-expected utility; Betweenness; Rank-dependent utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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