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Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?

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  • Colombo, Valentina
  • Paccagnini, Alessia

Abstract

We investigate the role played by credit supply shocks across the business cycle in the U.S. over the period 1973–2018. We estimate a nonlinear VAR including nominal, real, monetary, and financial variables. According to our results, a credit supply shock triggers asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables. We find that the share of variance of industrial production, employment, and inflation due to the shock is from six to eight times larger in recessions than in normal times.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombo, Valentina & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2020. "Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:188:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520300100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.108958
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Min & Fenghua Wen & Jiayu Xu & Nan Wu, 2023. "Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2088-2108, April.
    2. David Finck & Paul Rudel, 2020. "Do Credit Supply Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202026, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. David Finck & Paul Rudel, 2023. "Do credit supply shocks have asymmetric effects?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1559-1597, April.
    4. Philipp Meinen & Ana Cristina Soares, 2022. "Markups and Financial Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2471-2499.
    5. Peterson K. Ozili & Olajide Oladipo & Paul Terhemba Iorember, 2023. "Effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 583-599, January.
    6. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Puch González, Luis Antonio & Ruiz, Jesús, 2024. "The asymmetry puzzle: the supply chain disruptions news shocks effects on oil prices and inflation," UC3M Working papers. Economics 43758, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit supply shock; Smooth Transition VAR; Nonlinearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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