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Effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Peterson K. Ozili
  • Olajide Oladipo
  • Paul Terhemba Iorember

Abstract

Purpose - This paper investigates the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria after controlling for the quality of the legal system, size of central bank asset, banking sector cost efficiency and bank insolvency risk. Design/methodology/approach - The authors employ the generalised method of moments (GMM) regression methodology to estimate the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on two measures of economic growth in Nigeria. Findings - The abnormal increase in credit supply has a significant effect on economic growth. Abnormal increase in credit supply increases real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The abnormal increase in credit supply decreases real GDP per capita during the global financial crisis. The abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria. In contrast, the abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant negative effect on real GDP growth when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria. Practical implications - The abnormal increase in credit supply is ineffective in increasing GDP per capita during crisis years. Policymakers should be cautious in pressuring financial institutions to release an abnormally large amount of credit into the economy particularly during financial crises. Rather, policymakers should encourage financial institutions to supply credit in a sustained manner – not in an abnormal manner –and in a way that supports growth. Originality/value - The present study contributes to the literature by analysing the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in a developing country context.

Suggested Citation

  • Peterson K. Ozili & Olajide Oladipo & Paul Terhemba Iorember, 2023. "Effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 583-599, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ajemsp:ajems-02-2022-0036
    DOI: 10.1108/AJEMS-02-2022-0036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Haggard, Stephan & Tiede, Lydia, 2011. "The Rule of Law and Economic Growth: Where are We?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 673-685, May.
    4. Jagadish Prasad Bist, 2018. "Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and non-African low-income countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1449780-144, January.
    5. Colombo, Valentina & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2020. "Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. John C. Anyanwu, 2014. "Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Africa: Are There any Lessons from China?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 468-493, September.
    7. Hahn, L. Albert, 2015. "Economic Theory of Bank Credit," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198723073.
    8. V. Colombo & A. Paccagnini, 2020. "Has the credit supply shock asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?," Working Papers wp1140, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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    Cited by:

    1. Changjun Zheng & Sinamenye Jean-Petit, 2023. "The Effects of the Interactions Between Agro-Production, Economic, and Financial Development on Bank Sustainability," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    2. Onwioduokit, Emmanuel & O'Neill, Harold, 2023. "Bank credit dynamics and its influence on output growth in the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 119552, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Nigeria; Credit supply; GDP growth rate; GDP per capita; Abnormal credit supply; Rule of law; ZSCORE; Profitability; Domestic credit to the private sector; Central bank asset; G21; G28; O47; O55;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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