IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v28y2023i2p2088-2108.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Min
  • Fenghua Wen
  • Jiayu Xu
  • Nan Wu

Abstract

We investigate how both traditional bank credit and shadow banking credit affect housing prices and financial stress based on China's monthly data from January 2003 to December 2019. Our results show that: (a) the effects of bank credit shocks and shadow banking credit shocks on housing prices partly offset each other; (b) increasing bank loans in recessions will increase financial instability, while increasing shadow bank credit in recessions will lower financial instability; (c) commercial bank credit plays a more important role in explaining housing price fluctuations, while shadow banking credit plays a more important role in explaining financial stress fluctuations. Our results are robust to a wide battery of checks and have important policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Min & Fenghua Wen & Jiayu Xu & Nan Wu, 2023. "Credit supply, house prices, and financial stability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2088-2108, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:2:p:2088-2108
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2527
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2527?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hott, C., 2011. "Lending behavior and real estate prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2429-2442, September.
    2. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2013. "A Model of Shadow Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1331-1363, August.
    3. Roland Meeks & Benjamin Nelson & Piergiorgio Alessandri, 2017. "Shadow Banks and Macroeconomic Instability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1483-1516, October.
    4. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2015. "Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 310-314, May.
    5. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    6. Li, Jianjun & Hsu, Sara & Qin, Yanzhi, 2014. "Shadow banking in China: Institutional risks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-129.
    7. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2012. "The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 349-366.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
    9. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    10. André K. Anundsen & Karsten Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Kasper Kragh‐Sørensen, 2016. "Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1291-1311, November.
    11. Lin William Cong & Haoyu Gao & Jacopo Ponticelli & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3412-3460.
    12. Alan Moreira & Alexi Savov, 2017. "The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2381-2432, December.
    13. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    14. Markus Brunnermeier & Simon Rother & Isabel Schnabel & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 4272-4317.
    15. Huang, Daisy J. & Leung, Charles K. & Qu, Baozhi, 2015. "Do bank loans and local amenities explain Chinese urban house prices?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 19-38.
    16. Tajik, Mohammad & Aliakbari, Saeideh & Ghalia, Thaana & Kaffash, Sepideh, 2015. "House prices and credit risk: Evidence from the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-135.
    17. An, Ping & Yu, Mengxuan, 2018. "Neglected part of shadow banking in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 211-236.
    18. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Financial Stability Monitoring," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 357-395, December.
    19. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    20. Guillaume Plantin, 2015. "Shadow Banking and Bank Capital Regulation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01168494, HAL.
    21. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    22. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
    23. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "What Do Vars Tell Us About The Impact Of A Credit Supply Shock?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 625-646, May.
    24. Colombo, Valentina & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2020. "Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    25. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    26. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    27. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    28. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    29. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    30. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    31. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani, 2017. "Credit-Induced Boom and Bust," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3711-3758.
    32. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    33. Guillaume Plantin, 2015. "Shadow Banking and Bank Capital Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 146-175.
    34. Luca Gambetti & Alberto Musso, 2017. "Loan Supply Shocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 764-782, June.
    35. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    36. Guillaume Plantin, 2015. "Shadow Banking and Bank Capital Regulation," SciencePo Working papers hal-01168494, HAL.
    37. Shleifer, Andrei, 2010. "Comments on Gorton and Metrick: Regulating the Shadow Banking System," Scholarly Articles 10498513, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    38. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    39. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    40. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are government spending multipliers greater during periods of slack? evidence from 20th century historical data," Working Papers 2013-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    41. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
    43. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
    44. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    45. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hqvfahst79ekpe0losvq1h46k is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    47. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    48. Gimeno, Ricardo & Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
    49. Michael T. Owyang & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2013. "Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater during Periods of Slack? Evidence from Twentieth-Century Historical Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 129-134, May.
    50. Bengtsson, Elias, 2013. "Shadow banking and financial stability: European money market funds in the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 579-594.
    51. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    52. Adi Sunderam, 2015. "Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 939-977.
    53. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
    54. Huang, Ji, 2018. "Banking and shadow banking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 124-152.
    55. Kairong Xiao & Francesca Cornelli, 2020. "Monetary Transmission through Shadow Banks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2379-2420.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Xin & Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2022. "Shadow banking and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Eduardo Dávila & Ansgar Walther, 2021. "Corrective Regulation with Imperfect Instruments," NBER Working Papers 29160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ridoy Deb Nath & Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury, 2021. "Shadow banking: a bibliometric and content analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
    4. Greg Buchak & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2024. "Aggregate Lending and Modern Financial Intermediation: Why Bank Balance Sheet Models Are Miscalibrated," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(1), pages 239-287.
    5. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    6. Liu, Chao & Zheng, Ying & Zhao, Qi & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Financial stability and real estate price fluctuation in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    7. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    8. Hodula, Martin & Libich, Jan, 2023. "Has monetary policy fueled the rise in shadow banking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Ji Huang & Zongbo Huang & Xiang Shao, 2023. "The Risk of Implicit Guarantees: Evidence from Shadow Banks in China," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1521-1544.
    10. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Selim KAYHAN & Tayfur BAYAT, 2023. "Re-visiting exchange rate volatility – risk perception relation. New evidence from Fourier tests," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 323-332, Autumn.
    12. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Wildauer, Rafael, 2018. "Expenditure Cascades, Low Interest Rates or Property Booms? Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 85-121, September.
    13. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Betting the house," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 2-18.
    14. An, Hui & Wang, Hao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao, 2022. "Early warning system for risk of external liquidity shock in BRICS countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    15. Priti Mendiratta ARORA & Hema KAPUR & Ananya Ghosh DASTIDAR, 2023. "Credit, housing prices, expectations, and the macroeconomy. Evidence from developed and developing countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 165-182, Autumn.
    16. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2021. "Shadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation [Securitization without Risk Transfer]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2622-2653.
    17. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    18. Luck, Stephan & Schempp, Paul, 2023. "Inefficient liquidity creation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Liu, Zehao & Xie, Chengbo, 2021. "Liquidity, capital requirements, and shadow banking," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1379-1388.
    20. Cafiso, Gianluca & Rivolta, Giulia, 2024. "Conventional monetary interventions through the credit channel and the rise of non-bank institutions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:28:y:2023:i:2:p:2088-2108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.