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Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques

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  • Camarero, Mariam
  • Gómez, Estrella
  • Tamarit, Cecilio

Abstract

In this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1967–2008. We strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second-generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross-section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension. This approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by EMU members in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes. Once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is still significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Camarero, Mariam & Gómez, Estrella & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2014. "Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 140-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:140-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.04.033
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 451-467, April.
    3. Md. Rabiul Islam & Jakob B. Madsen, 2018. "Knowledge diffusion and agricultural development," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 265-276, March.
    4. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2016. "The spatial decay in commuting probabilities: Employment potential vs. commuting gravity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 125-129.
    6. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    8. Bernard NGUEKENG & Jean-Baptiste Achille NSOE NKOULI & Iréné TIAKO & Augustin NGOMSI, 2021. "Les effets du capital humain sur l’intégration commerciale en Afrique subsaharienne," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 54, pages 101-116.
    9. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland, 2018. "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model," ifo Working Paper Series 250, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Rongji Huang & Tengfei Nie & Yangguang Zhu & Shaofu Du, 2020. "Forecasting Trade Potential Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries: Under the Background of Belt and Road Initiative," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1233-1247, April.
    11. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2018. "The Trade Effects of Border Controls: Evidence from the European Schengen Agreement," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 335-351, March.
    12. Mignamissi, Dieudonné, 2020. "The CFA Franc effect on trade," MPRA Paper 99018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Esposito, Piero, 2017. "Trade creation, trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-472.
    14. Lavinia Rotili, 2014. "The Euro effects on intermediate and final exports," Working Papers 7/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    15. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1146-1164, September.
    16. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    17. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity models; Trade; Panel cointegration; Common factors; Structural breaks; Cross-section dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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